Flanigan'S Enterprises (Flanigan'S Enterprises) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1984. Start your Free Trial

What is Flanigan'S Enterprises Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Flanigan'S Enterprises Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Flanigan'S Enterprises Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Flanigan'S Enterprises's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Flanigan'S Enterprises (Flanigan'S Enterprises) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Flanigan'S Enterprises Inc (AMEX:BDL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0DY:Germany

Address

5059 N.E. 18th Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA, 33334

Website

https://www.flanigans.net

Flanigan'S Enterprises Inc operates as a chain of small cocktail lounges and packages liquor stores throughout South Florida. Its menu consists of a wide variety of options including prime rib, steaks, pasta, entree salads, burgers, a variety of sandwiches, and oversized signature desserts. The business activity is principally conducted in two segments namely Restaurant and Package liquor store segment. Its Restaurant segment offers alcoholic beverages and full food service and Package stores consist of retail liquor sales and related items. The company generates maximum revenue from Restaurant segment.

Executives

E. Mary Bennett	director	2168 CENTERVIEW CT N, CLEARWATER FL 33759
Christopher Barry Oneil	director	4101 NE 26TH AVENUE, LIGHTHOUSE POINT FL 33064
August Bucci	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	13078 NORTHWEST 23RD ST, PEMBROKE PINES FL 33028
James Ii Flanigan	director, officer: President	5059 NORTHEAST 18TH AVE, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33334
Jeffrey D Kastner	director, officer: CFO & Secretary	5059 N.E. 18TH AVENUE, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33334
Christopher Jeff Nelms	director	724 SE 17TH TERRACE, DEERFIELD BEACH FL 33441
Michael B Flanigan	director	601 OVERLOOK DRIVE, STUART FL 34994
Barbara J Kronk	director	9990 N.W. 39TH STREET, HOLLYWOOD FL 33024
Jean Picard	officer: VP of Package Operations	8351 NORTHWEST 166TH TERRACE, MIAMI FL 33016
Patrick J Flanigan	director	1750 NORTHWEST RIVER TRAIL, STUART FL 34994
Joseph G Flanigan	director, officer: Chariman & CEO	6 GATEHOUSE ROAD, SEA RANCH LAKES FL 33308