Blockchain Coinvestors Acquisition I (Blockchain Coinvestors Acquisition I) Predictability Rank

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What is Blockchain Coinvestors Acquisition I Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blockchain Coinvestors Acquisition I Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Blockchain Coinvestors Acquisition I Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Blockchain Coinvestors Acquisition I (Blockchain Coinvestors Acquisition I) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Blockchain Coinvestors Acquisition Corp I (NAS:BCSA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

VCXB LCW GAQ FLME CHEA EVE HCMA SUAC ALCY HHLA PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Boundary Hall, Cricket Square, PO Box 1093, Grand Cayman, CYM, KY1-1102

Website

https://www.blockchaincac1.com

Blockchain Coinvestors Acquisition Corp I is a blank check company.

Executives

Saba Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Boaz Weinstein	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Mitchell Mechigian	officer: Chief Financial Officer	P.O. BOX 1093, BOUNDRY HALL, CRICKET SQUARE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1102
Alison Davis	10 percent owner, officer: Managing Director	255 FISERV DRIVE, BROOKFIELD WI 53045
Lou Kerner	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Managing Director and CEO	P.O. BOX 1093, BOUNDRY HALL, CRICKET SQUARE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1102
Wiel Colin T.	director	P.O. BOX 1093, BOUNDRY HALL, CRICKET SQUARE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1102
Le Merle Matthew C	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Managing Director and Chair	4545 PARADISE DRIVE, TIBURON CA 94920
Blockchain Coinvestors Acquisition Sponsors I Llc	10 percent owner	1120 NW COUCH STREET, 10TH FLOOR, PORTLAND OR 97209
Gary Lloyd Cookhorn	director	P.O. BOX 1093, BOUNDRY HALL, CRICKET SQUARE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1102
Rebecca Lynn Macieira-kaufmann	director	P.O. BOX 1093, BOUNDRY HALL, CRICKET SQUARE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1102

Blockchain Coinvestors Acquisition I (Blockchain Coinvestors Acquisition I) Headlines

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