BARK (BARK) Predictability Rank

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What is BARK Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BARK Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BARK (BARK) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » BARK Inc (NYSE:BARK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

120 Broadway, 12th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10271

Website

https://www.bark.co

BARK Inc is a dog-centric company, devoted to making dogs happy with the products, services, and content. It serves dogs nationwide with monthly subscription services, BarkBox and Super Chewer; e-commerce experience on BarkShop.com; custom collections via its retail partner network, including Target and Amazon; wellness products that meet dogs' needs with BARK Bright; and a personalized meal delivery service for dogs BARK Eats.

Executives

Matt Meeker	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O THE ORIGINAL BARK COMPANY, 221 CANAL ST., FL 6, NEW YORK NY 10013
Larry E Bodner	director	PO BOX 193575, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94119
David Kamenetzky	director	50 SOUTH POINTE DRIVE, APT. 1206N, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Joanna Coles	director	C/O SNAP INC., 3000 31ST STREET, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Zahir Ibrahim	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MOLSON COORS BREWING COMPANY, 1225 17TH STREET, SUITE 3200, DENVER CO 80202
Brian Dostie	officer: VP Accounting, Controller	120 BROADWAY, FL 12, NEW YORK NY 10271
Michele S. Meyer	director	300 SIXTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Paulette R. Dodson	director	PETSMART, INC, 19601 N 27TH AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Jim Mcginty	director	C/O THE ORIGINAL BARK COMPANY, 221 CANAL ST., FL 6, NEW YORK NY 10013
Allison Koehler	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	3787 MEDER ROAD, SHINGLE SPRINGS CA 95682
Narayanan Sitaraman	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O THE ORIGINAL BARK COMPANY, 221 CANAL ST., FL 6, NEW YORK NY 10013
Kevin Eyerman	officer: VP of Accounting/Controller	C/O BARK, INC., 221 CANAL STREET, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Cindy Gustafson	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O BARK INC, 221 CANAL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Jonathan J Ledecky	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O THE LEDECKY FOUNDATION, 901 - 15TH STREET, NW, SUITE 950, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Henrik Werdelin	director, officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O THE ORIGINAL BARK COMPANY, 221 CANAL ST., FL 6, NEW YORK NY 10013