Aspen Technology (Aspen Technology) Predictability Rank

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What is Aspen Technology Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aspen Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aspen Technology (Aspen Technology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Aspen Technology Inc (NAS:AZPN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AZPN1:Mexico YV0:Germany

Address

20 Crosby Drive, Bedford, MA, USA, 01730

Website

https://www.aspentech.com

Aspen Technology is a global leader in asset optimization software, enabling customers within capital-intensive industries to design, operate and maintain their functions to meet their profitability, safety, and sustainability goals. The heritage business of AspenTech was founded in 1981 and provides software solutions purposed to optimize engineering, manufacturing, and supply chain and asset management functions. In 2021, Emerson Electric traded over $6 billion in cash and its Open Systems International (digital grid management) and subsurface science and engineering businesses for 55% of AspenTech's shares. The new AspenTech is the combination of heritage Aspen, OSI, and SSE and serves more than 3,000 customers across 40 countries.

Executives

Whelan, Jr. Robert M.	director	ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 26 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Mark Edgar Mouritsen	officer: Senior VP & General Counsel	C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 20 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
F G Hammond	officer: Senior VP & General Counsel	C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 10 CANAL PARK, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Antonio J Pietri	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 20 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Robert E Beauchamp	director	2101 CITYWEST BLVD, HOUSTON TX 77042-2827
Chantelle Yvette Breithaupt	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC. 20 CROSBY DR., BEDFORD MA 01730
Arlen Shenkman	director	C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Thomas F Bogan	director	C/O WORKDAY, INC., 6110 STONERIDGE MALL RD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Patrick M. Antkowiak	director	4 PATRICK WAY, KINGSVILLE MD 21087
Christopher Stagno	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BRIGHTCOVE INC., 290 CONGRESS STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Manish Chawla	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 20 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Jill D. Smith	director	1601 DRY CREEK DRIVE, SUITE 260, LONGMONT CO 80503
Karen Golz	director	ONE TECHNOLOGY WAY, NORWOOD MA 02062
Ram R. Krishnan	director	C/O EMERSON ELECTRIC CO., 8000 W. FLORISSANT AVENUE, ST. LOUIS MO 63136
Emerson Electric Co	director, 10 percent owner	8000 W. FLORISSANT, P.O. BOX 4100, ST LOUIS MO 63136