Axon Enterprise (Axon Enterprise) Predictability Rank

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What is Axon Enterprise Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Axon Enterprise Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Axon Enterprise Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Axon Enterprise (Axon Enterprise) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Axon Enterprise Inc (NAS:AXON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

HEI.A HWM TXT HII CW WWD BWXT LHX DRS MOG.A GE RTX XPAR:AIR LMT BA XPAR:SAF GD NOC TDG LSE:BA.

Traded in Other Exchanges

TCS:Germany

Address

17800 North 85th Street, Scottsdale, AZ, USA, 85255

Website

https://investor.axon.com

Axon Enterprise Inc develops, manufactures, and sells conducted energy devices and cloud-based digital evidence management software designed for use by law enforcement, corrections, military forces, private security personnel, and private individuals for personal defense. The company operates in two segments: Taser and software & sensors. Taser develops and sells CEDs used for protecting users and virtual reality training. Software and sensors manufacture fully integrated hardware and cloud-based software solutions such as body cameras, automated license plate reading, and digital evidence management systems. Axon delivers its products worldwide and gets most of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Joshua Isner	officer: EVP Global Sales	17800 N 85TH ST, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Jeffrey C Kunins	officer: Chief Product Officer	17800 NORTH 85TH STREET, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Brittany Bagley	officer: CFO & CBO	C/O SONOS, INC., 614 CHAPALA STREET, SANTA BARBARA CA 93101
Julie A Cullivan	director	17800 N 85TH ST, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Hadi Partovi	director	9655 LAKE WASHINGTON BLVD NE, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Erika Nardini	director	1241 E MAIN ST, STAMFORD CT 06902-3520
Patrick W Smith	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	7860 EAST MCCLAIN DRIVE, SUITE 2, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260-1627
Jeri Williams	director	17800 N 85TH ST, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Graham Smith	director	301 BRANNMAN ST, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Mark W Kroll	director	PO BOX 23, CRYSTAL BAY MN 55323
Caitlin Elizabeth Kalinowski	director	17800 NORTH 85TH STREET, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Michael Garnreiter	director	6735 E. GREENWAY PARKWAY, UNIT #2049, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254
Luke Larson	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	17800 N 85TH ST, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Matthew R Mcbrady	director
James Zito	officer: Chief Financial Officer	17800 N 85TH ST, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255