Mission Produce (Mission Produce) Predictability Rank

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What is Mission Produce Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mission Produce Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Mission Produce Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Mission Produce (Mission Produce) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Mission Produce Inc (NAS:AVO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5YM:Germany

Address

2710 Camino Del Sol, Oxnard, CA, USA, 93030

Website

https://www.missionproduce.com

Mission Produce Inc is engaged in the business of producing and distributing avocados, serving retail, wholesale, and food service customers. Also, the company provides additional services like ripening, bagging, custom packing, and logistical management. The company's operating segments include Marketing and Distribution and International Farming and Blueberries. It generates maximum revenue from the Marketing and Distribution segment. The Marketing and Distribution segment sources fruit mainly from growers and then distributes fruit through a distribution network.

Executives

Bryan E Giles	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O MISSION PRODUCE, INC., 2500 E. VINEYARD AVENUE, SUITE 300, OXNARD CA 93036
Stephen J Barnard	director, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO	C/O MISSION PRODUCE, INC., 2500 E. VINEYARD AVENUE, SUITE 300, OXNARD CA 93036
Tony B Sarsam	director	850 76TH STREET SW, PO BOX 8700, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518
Luis A Gonzalez	director, 10 percent owner	C/O MISSION PRODUCE,INC., 2500 E. VINEYARD AVENUE, SUITE 300, OXNARD CA 93036
Juan R Wiesner	officer: See Remarks	C/O MISSION PRODUCE, INC., 2500 E. VINEYARD AVENUE, SUITE 300, OXNARD CA 93036
Timothy Bulow	officer: President and COO	2710 CAMINO DEL SOL, OXNARD CA 93030
Bonnie Cruickshank Lind	director	3460 PRESTON RIDGE ROAD, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Shaunte Danielle Mears-watkins	director	2710 CAMINO DEL SOL, OXNARD CA 93030
Joanne C Wu	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O MISSION PRODUCE, INC., 2710 CAMINO DEL SOL, OXNARD CA 93030
Michael A Browne	officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	C/O MISSION PRODUCE, INC., 2500 E. VINEYARD AVENUE, SUITE 300, OXNARD CA 93036
Jay A Pack	director	C/O MISSION PRODUCE, INC., 2500 E. VINEYARD AVENUE, SUITE 300, OXNARD CA 93036
Steve A Beebe	director	C/O MISSION PRODUCE, INC., 2500 E. VINEYARD AVENUE, SUITE 300, OXNARD CA 93036
Ross W Wileman	officer: See Remarks	C/O MISSION PRODUCE, INC., 2500 E. VINEYARD AVENUE, SUITE 300, OXNARD CA 93036
Bruce C. Taylor	director, 10 percent owner	C/O TAYLOR FARMS, 911-B BLANCO CIRCLE, SALINAS CA 93901
Linda B Segre	director	2180 RUTHERFORD ROAD, CARLSBAD CA 92008