Avanos Medical (Avanos Medical) Predictability Rank

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What is Avanos Medical Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Avanos Medical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Avanos Medical (Avanos Medical) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Avanos Medical Inc (NYSE:AVNS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8HH:Germany

Address

5405 Windward Parkway, Suite 100 South, Alpharetta, GA, USA, 30004

Website

https://www.avanos.com

Avanos Medical Inc is a United States-based company that develops and sells medical devices and related services globally. The firm operates in one segment, medical devices, which primarily sells products related to pain management, IV Therapy, and respiratory and digestive health. The company divides its Medical Devices segment into two franchises: Pain Management and Chronic Care. Pain Management provides non-opioid products for acute and interventional pain, including cold and compression therapy. Chronic Care aims at addressing digestive and respiratory issues with feeding tubes and catheters. Avanos generates most of its revenue from its Chronic Care franchise and in North America.

Executives

Sudhakar Varshney	officer: SVP, Global Supply Chain	5405 WINDWARD PARKWAY, SUITE 100 SOUTH, ALPHARETTA GA 30004
Lisa Egbuonu-davis	director	C/O OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS, INC., 303 INTERNATIONAL CIRCLE, SUITE 200, HUNT VALLEY MD 21030
John Joseph Hurley	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	5405 WINDWARD PARKWAY, ALPHARETTA GA 30004
Patrick J Oleary	director	31515 BALLANTYNE CORP, C/O SPX CORP, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Mojirade James	officer: SVP, General Counsel	5405 WINDWARD PKWY, ALPHARETTA GA 30004
Kerr Holbrook	officer: SVP, GM Chronic Care	5405 WINDWARD PKWY, ALPHARETTA GA 30004
Michael Greiner	officer: SVP - Chief Financial Officer	C/O VISTAPRINT, 95 HAYDEN AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
David Edward Ball	officer: SVP - Global Supply Chain	AVANOS MEDICAL, INC., 5405 WINDWARD PKWY, ALPHARETTA GA 30004
William David Haydon	officer: SVP, GM Pain Franchise	5405 WINDWARD PARKWAY, ALPHARETTA GA 30004
Arjun Ranjan Sarker	officer: Senior VP, International	HALYARD HEALTH, INC., 5405 WINDWARD PARKWAY, ALPHARETTA GA 30004
Gary Blackford	director	7700 FRANCE AVENUE SOUTH, EDINA MN 55435
Joseph Fralin Woody	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	5405 WINDWARD PARKWAY, SUITE 100 SOUTH, ALPHARETTA GA 30004
Steven E Voskuil	officer: See Remarks	5405 WINDWARD PARKWAY, ALPHARETTA GA 30004
John W Wesley	director	5405 WINDWARD PARKWAY, ALPHARETTA GA 30004
John Raymond Tushar	officer: President, Global Franchises	HALYARD HEALTH, INC., 5405 WINDWARD PARKWAY, ALPHARETTA GA 30004