Avinger (Avinger) Predictability Rank

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What is Avinger Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Avinger Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Avinger (Avinger) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Avinger Inc (NAS:AVGR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

400 Chesapeake Drive, Redwood City, CA, USA, 94063

Website

https://avinger.com

Avinger Inc is a United States-based medical device company. It is engaged in designing, manufacturing and selling image-guided, catheter-based systems that are used by physicians to treat patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD). The products offered by the firm include Lightbox imaging console, the Ocelot family of catheters, which are designed to allow physicians to penetrate a total blockage in an artery, known as a chronic total occlusion (CTO) and Pantheris, image-guided atherectomy device which is designed to allow physicians to precisely remove arterial plaque in PAD patients. It manufactures and sells products in the United States and internationally of which it generates the majority of the revenue from the sales made in the United States.

Executives

Crg Partners Iii (cayman) Unlev Aiv I L.p.	10 percent owner	1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002
Crg Partners Iii (cayman) Lev Aiv I L.p.	10 percent owner	1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002
Crg Partners Iii - Parallel Fund B (cayman) L.p.	10 percent owner	1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002
Cr Group L.p.	10 percent owner	1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002
Crg Partners Iii - Parallel Fund (a) L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O CAPITAL ROYALTY L.P., 1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002
Crg Partners Iii L.p.	10 percent owner	1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002
Nabeel Paul Subainati	officer: Vice President, Finance	400 CHESAPEAKE DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
James Cullen	director	5301 STEVENS CREEK BLVD, MS 1A-LC, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Mark Weinswig	officer: Chief Financial Officer	EMCORE CORP, 10420 RESEARCH ROAD, SE, ALBUQUERQUE NM 87123
Himanshu Patel	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O AVINGER, INC., 400 CHESAPEAKE DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Jeffrey M Soinski	director, officer: President and CEO	585 WEST 500 SOUTH, BOUNTIFUL UT 84010
Tamara Elias	director	400 CHESAPEAKE DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Simpson John B Ph D Md	director, 10 percent owner	C/O FOXHOLLOW TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 740 BAY ROAD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Matthew Ferguson	officer: CBO, CFO & Treasurer	C/O FOXHOLLOW TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 740 BAY ROAD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
John D. Simpson	officer: Sr. VP, Sales & Marketing	C/O AVINGER, INC., 400 CHESAPEAKE DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063