AvidXchange Holdings (AvidXchange Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is AvidXchange Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AvidXchange Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

AvidXchange Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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AvidXchange Holdings (AvidXchange Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » AvidXchange Holdings Inc (NAS:AVDX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

DOCN EVCM PAY RAMP NTCT SWI CSGS ODD PAYO EVTC MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SQ

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1210 AvidXchange Lane, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28206

Website

https://www.avidxchange.com

AvidXchange Holdings Inc is a provider of AP automation software and payment solutions for middle-market businesses and their suppliers. It generates the majority of its sales from Payment revenue followed by Software revenue and Services revenue. The company generates revenue in the United States.

Executives

Joel Wilhite	officer: See Remarks	1210 AVIDXCHANGE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28206
Ryan Stahl	officer: See Remarks	1210 AVIDXCHANGE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28206
Todd Alan Cunningham	officer: See Remarks	1210 AVIDXCHANGE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28206
Michael Praeger	director, officer: See Remarks	1210 AVIDXCHANGE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28206
Daniel Drees	officer: See Remarks	1210 AVIDXCHANGE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28206
Angelic Gibson	officer: See Remarks	1210 AVIDXCHANGE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28206
Matthew C Harris	director, 10 percent owner	1 BANK STREET, 2ND FLOOR, WILLIAMSTOWN MA 01267
James E Hausman	director	1210 AVIDXCHANGE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28206
Sonali Sambhus	director	C/O AVIDXCHANGE HOLDINGS, INC., 1210 AVIDXCHANGE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28206
Asif Ramji	director	3399 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1900, ATLANTA GA 30326
Bain Capital Venture Partners 2014, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Teresa Mackintosh	director	1210 AVIDXCHANGE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28206
Bcv Ax Investors, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON ST, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Venture Coinvestment Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Venture Coinvestment Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116