Avadel Pharmaceuticals (Avadel Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Avadel Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Avadel Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Avadel Pharmaceuticals (Avadel Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC (NAS:AVDL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AWK1:Germany AWK1:Germany

Address

10 Earlsfort Terrace, Dublin 2, Dublin, IRL, D02 T380

Website

https://www.avadel.com

Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC is a specialty pharmaceutical company. It identifies, develops, and commercializes branded pharmaceutical products including controlled-release therapeutic products based on its proprietary drug delivery technologies in the United States. The company markets products in both the primary care and sterile injectables markets. Its products portfolio includes Bloxiverz, Vazculep (phenylephrine hydrochloride injection), Akovaz (ephedrine sulfate injection), Karbinal ER (carbinoxamine maleate extended-release oral suspension), AcipHex Sprinkle (rabeprazole sodium), Cefaclor for Oral Suspension, 125 mg/5 mL, 250 mg/5 mL and 375 mg/5 mL, and Flexichamber. Majority of the revenue is derived from the United States.

Executives

Thomas S Mchugh	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2280 SCHUETZ ROAD, ST. LOUIS MO 63146
Mark Anthony Mccamish	director	C/O FORTY SEVEN, INC., 1490 O'BRIEN DRIVE, SUITE A, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Geoffrey Michael Glass	director	4721 EMPEROR BLVD, SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703
Greg J Divis	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	10-1 BLANCHARDSTOWN CORPORATE PARK, BALLYCOOLIN, DUBLIN L2 15
Richard J Kim	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	16 FAIRWAY DRIVE, WEST WINDSOR NJ 08550
Eric J Ende	director	C/O MATINAS BIOPHARMA HOLDINGS, INC., 1545 ROUTE 206 SOUTH, SUITE 302, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Linda Palczuk	director	7015 ALBERT EINSTEIN DRIVE, COLUMBIA MD 21046
Peter Thornton	director	TECHNOPATH LIFE SCIENCES PARK, FORT HENRY, BALLINA, CO. TIPPERARY L2 V94 FF1P
Douglas J Williamson	officer: Chief Medical Officer	AVADEL PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 10 EARLSFORT TERRACE, DUBLIN L2 D02 T390
Sandra L Hatten	officer: See Remarks	10-1 BLANCHARDSTOWN CORPORATE PARK, BALLYCOOLIN, DUBLIN L2 15
Jason Vaughn	officer: Sr. VP, Technical Operations	10-1 BLANCHARDSTOWN CORPORATE PARK, BALLYCOOLIN, DUBLIN L2 15
Jordan Dubow	officer: Chief Medical Officer	10-1 BLANCHARDSTOWN CORPORATE PARK, BALLYCOOLIN, DUBLIN L2 15
Michael F Kanan	officer: See Remarks	10-1 BLANCHARDSTOWN CORPORATE PARK, BALLYCOOLIN, DUBLIN L2 15
David P Gusky	officer: See Remarks	10-1 BLANCHARDSTOWN CORPORATE PARK, BALLYCOOLIN, DUBLIN L2 15
Michael S Anderson	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	10-1 BLANCHARDSTOWN CORPORATE PARK, BALLYCOOLIN, DUBLIN L2 15