Ault Alliance (Ault Alliance) Predictability Rank

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What is Ault Alliance Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ault Alliance Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ault Alliance (Ault Alliance) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Ault Alliance Inc (AMEX:AULT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

11411 Southern Highlands Parkway, Suite 240, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89141

Website

https://www.ault.com

Ault Alliance Inc is a diversified holding company. It operates a data center at which it mines Bitcoin and provides mission-critical products that support a diverse range of industries, including oil exploration, crane services, defense/aerospace, industrial, automotive, medical/biopharma, consumer electronics, hotel operations and textiles. The company has eight reportable segments: Energy and Infrastructure; Technology and Finance; The Singing Machine Company, Inc; BitNile, Inc; Giga-tronics Incorporated; Imperalis Holding Corp., also referred to as TurnOnGreen; Ault Real Estate Equities, Inc and Ault Disruptive Technologies Corporation.

Executives

Ault Milton C Iii	director	11411 SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS PARKWAY, SUITE 240, LAS VEGAS NV 89141
Howard Ash	director	4233 SHERIDAN AVE, MIAMI BEACH FL 33140
Robert O Smith	10 percent owner	DIGITAL POWER CORPORATION, 41920 CHRISTY STREET, FREMONT CA 94538
Ault & Company, Inc.	director, officer: See Remark	11411 SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS PARKWAY, SUITE 240, LAS VEGAS NV 89141
William B. Horne	director	C/O AULT ALLIANCE, INC., 940 SOUTH COAST DRIVE, SUITE 200, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Glen E Tellock	director	1725 SHEPHERD ROAD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Kenneth S Cragun	officer: See Remarks	3775 CHIPPEWA CIRCLE, CORONA CA 92881
Jodi Brichan	director	C/O DPW HOLDINGS, INC., 201 SHIPYARD WAY, SUITE E, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92663
Ding Gu	10 percent owner	208 LAUREL CREEK BLVD., MOORESTOWN NJ 08057
Henry Carl Nisser	officer: Executive VP & General Counsel	100 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 1658A, NEW YORK NY 10017
Kristine L Ault	director, 10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 3587, TUSTIN CA 92781
Jeffrey Allen Bentz	director	107 E BONITA WAY, TEMPE AZ 85281
Philou Ventures, Llc	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 3587, TUSTIN CA 92781
Mordechai Rosenberg	director	1 BROSH STREET, KFAR SABA L3 4438240
Amos Kohn	director	48430 LAKEVIEW BLVD., C/O DIGITAL POWER CORP, FREMONT CA 94538