Augusta Gold (Augusta Gold) Predictability Rank

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What is Augusta Gold Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Augusta Gold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Augusta Gold (Augusta Gold) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Augusta Gold Corp (OTCPK:AUGG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7RZ:Germany G:Canada

Address

999 Canada Place, Suite 555, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6C 3E1

Website

https://www.augustagold.com

Augusta Gold Corp is an exploration-stage company. The company is primarily engaged in the acquisition and exploration of gold properties. It operates Bullfrog Project, located in Beatty town of Las Vegas, Nevada.

Executives

Augusta Investments Inc.	10 percent owner	SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
Daniel Earle	director	C/O AUGUSTA INVESTMENTS INC., SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
Thomas A. Ladner	officer: VP, Legal	C/O AUGUSTA INVESTMENTS INC., SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
Richard W Warke	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
James Robert Wickens	officer: Vice President, Operations	C/O AUGUSTA GOLD CORP., SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
Lynette Gould	officer: Sr. VP, Inv Rel & Corp Dev	C/O AUGUSTA INVESTMENTS INC., SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
Scott Burkett	officer: VP, Exploration	C/O AUGUSTA INVESTMENTS INC., SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
Johnny Pappas	officer: VP, Environmental & Permitting	C/O AUGUSTA INVESTMENTS INC., SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
Michael Mcclelland	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AUGUSTA INVESTMENTS INC., SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
Maryse Belanger	director, officer: President	C/O AUGUSTA INVESTMENTS INC., SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
Poonam Puri	director	C/O AUGUSTA INVESTMENTS INC., SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
Lenard F. Boggio	director	C/O AUGUSTA INVESTMENTS INC., SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
Purni Parikh	officer: SR VP, Corp Affairs & Secr	C/O AUGUSTA INVESTMENTS INC., SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1
John A. Boehner	director	401 N. MAIN STREET, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27101
William Robert Morgan	officer: VP, Capital Projects	C/O AUGUSTA INVESTMENTS INC., SUITE 555, 999 CANADA PLACE, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E1