Activision Blizzard (Activision Blizzard) Predictability Rank

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What is Activision Blizzard Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Activision Blizzard Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Activision Blizzard (Activision Blizzard) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Activision Blizzard Inc (NAS:ATVI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2701 Olympic Boulevard, Building B, Santa Monica, CA, USA, 90404

Website

https://www.activisionblizzard.com

Activision Blizzard was formed in 2008 by the merger of Activision, one of the largest console video game publishers, and Blizzard, one of largest PC video game publishers. The combined firm remains one of the world's largest video game publishers. Activision's impressive franchise portfolio includes World of Warcraft, which boasts more than $8 billion of lifetime sales, and Call of Duty, which has sold over 175 million copies across 14 titles over 12 years.

Executives

Julie Hodges	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC., 2701 OLYMPIC BOULEVARD, BUILDING B, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Peter J Nolan	director	11111SANTA MONICA BLVD, STE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Daniel Alegre	officer: President and COO	9800 59TH AVENUE NORTH, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55317
Robert A Kotick	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	3100 OCEAN PARK BLVD, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Brian Bulatao	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC., 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Armin Zerza	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC, 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Grant Michael Dixton	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC., 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Lulu Cheng Meservey	director	2701 OLYMPIC BOULEVARD, BUILDING B, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Dawn Ostroff	director	3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD, SANTA MONICA CA 91405
Barry Meyer	director	C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC., 3100 OCEAN PARK BLVD., SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Reveta F Bowers	director	C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC., 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Brian G Kelly	director	3100 OCEAN PARK BLVD, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Robert J Morgado	director	3100 OCAN PARK BLVD, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Robert J Corti	director	C/O AVON PRODUCTS INC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105-0196
Kerry Carr	director	ONE MEADOWLANDS PLAZA, EAST RUTHERFORD NJ 07073