Athene Holding (Athene Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Athene Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Athene Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Athene Holding (Athene Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Athene Holding Ltd (NYSE:ATHpD.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ATHpC.PFD:USA ATHpB.PFD:USA ATHpA.PFD:USA

Address

16 Church Street, Second Floor, Washington House, Hamilton, BMU, HM 11

Website

https://www.athene.com

Athene Holding Ltd is a retirement services company. It issues, reinsures, and acquires retirement savings products designed for the increasing number of individuals and institutions seeking to fund retirement needs. The company operates in the business segment of marketing annuity products, fixed rate and fixed indexed annuities. The entity has business operations in the US and other countries. The company earns majority of the revenue from US.

Executives

Vishal Narendra Sheth	director	SECOND FLOOR, WASHINGTON HOUSE, 16 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Michael Stephen Downing	officer: EVP, COO and Chief Actuary	SECOND FLOOR, WASHINGTON HOUSE, 16 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Marc J Rowan	director	APOLLO ADVISORS LP, 1301 AVE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10019
Sarah Jean Vanbeck	officer: SVP, Corp. Controller & PAO	SECOND FLOOR, WASHINGTON HOUSE, 16 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
John Leonard Golden	officer: EVP and General Counsel	C/O ATHENE HOLDING LTD., WASHINGTON HOUSE, 16 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Douglas Bartlett Niemann	officer: EVP and Chief Risk Officer	C/O ATHENE HOLDING LTD., WASHINGTON HOUSE, 16 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Lynn C Swann	director	C/O AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT, 23975 PARK SORRENTO, SUITE 300, CALABASAS CA 91302
Apollo Principal Holdings Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Principal Holdings Ii Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	9 W. 57TH ST., 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Mitra O'neill	director	C/O ATHENE HOLDING LTD., WASHINGTON HOUSE, 16 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Scott Kleinman	director	C/O APOLLO MANAGEMENT L P, 1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICANS 38TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10018
John Andrew Sondej	officer: SVP, Controller and PAO	C/O ATHENE HOLDING LTD., CHESNEY HOUSE, FIRST FLOOR, 96 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM08
Travis Michael Tweed	officer: See Remarks	C/O ATHENE HOLDING LTD., CHESNEY HOUSE, FIRST FLOOR, 96 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM08
Fehmi Alexander Zeko	director	C/O ATHENE HOLDING LTD., WASHINGTON HOUSE, 16 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Manfred Puffer	director	C/O APOLLO MANAGEMENT, L.P., 9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019