Athira Pharma (Athira Pharma) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2020. Start your Free Trial

What is Athira Pharma Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Athira Pharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Athira Pharma Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Athira Pharma's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Athira Pharma (Athira Pharma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Athira Pharma Inc (NAS:ATHA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

18706 North Creek Parkway, Suite 104, Bothell, WA, USA, 98011

Website

https://www.athira.com

Athira Pharma Inc is a late clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing small molecules engineered to restore neuronal health and slow neurodegeneration. Its pipeline candidates are; Fosgonimeton (ATH-1017) a subcutaneously administered, small molecule positive modulator of the HGF/MET system for CNS disorders, ATH-1020 is a novel small molecule compound designed to be an orally available once-daily treatment, to enhance the HGF/MET system. ATH-1105 is a novel small molecule compound designed to be an orally available once-daily treatment, to enhance the HGF/MET system, and several other compounds in preclinical discovery and development for neurodegenerative diseases, including ATH-1018 and ATH-1019.

Executives

Mark James Litton	officer: Chief Operating Officer	11804 NORTH CREEK PARKWAY SOUTH, BOTHELL WA 98011
Mark Worthington	officer: General Counsel	C/O ATHIRA PHARMA, INC., 18706 NORTH CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 104, BOTHELL WA 98011
Rachel Lenington	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O ATHIRA PHARMA, INC., 18706 NORTH CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 104, BOTHELL WA 98011
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Andrew Gengos	officer: See Below	21900 BURBANK BOULEVARD, 3RD FLOOR, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Grant Pickering	director	C/O VAXCYTE, INC., 825 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, STE. 300, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
James A Johnson	director	C/O ZYMOGENETICS, INC., 1201 EASTLAKE AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98102
Kevin Church	officer: Vice President of Discovery	4000 MASON ROAD, SUITE 300, BOX 352141, SEATTLE WA 98195-2141
Glenna Mileson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4000 MASON ROAD, SUITE 300, BOX 352141, SEATTLE WA 98195-2141
Kelly A Romano	director	C/O DORMAN PRODUCTS, INC., 3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 18915
Hans Moebius	officer: Chief Medical Officer	4000 MASON ROAD, SUITE 300, BOX 352141, SEATTLE WA 98195-2141
Michael A. Panzara	director	733 CONCORD AVENUE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Barbara Kosacz	director	3175 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Joseph Edelman	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Rtw Investments, Lp	10 percent owner	40 10TH AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014