What is Assertio Holdings Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Assertio Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Assertio Holdings (Assertio Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
100 South Saunders Road, Suite 300, Lake Forest, IL, USA, 60045
Assertio Holdings Inc is a pharmaceutical company. It is engaged in providing solutions to advance patient care in the areas of neurology, orphan and specialty medicines. The company markets three FDA-approved products for various neurological conditions including Gralise, tablets for the management of postherpetic neuralgia; CAMBIA, for acute treatment of migraine attacks with or without aura in adults 18 years of age or older; and Zipsor, liquid-filled capsules for relief of mild to moderate pain.
Executives
| Daniel A. Peisert |
director, officer: President & CEO |
C/O ASSERTIO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 100 SOUTH SAUNDERS ROAD, SUITE 300, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Paul Schwichtenberg |
officer: SVP and CFO |
100 SOUTH SAUNDERS ROAD, SUITE 300, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Ajay Patel |
officer: SVP and CAO |
100 SOUTH SAUNDERS ROAD, SUITE 300, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Sam Schlessinger |
officer: SVP, General Counsel |
100 SOUTH SAUNDERS ROAD, SUITE 300, LAKE FORREST IL 60045 |
| William Mckee |
director |
|
| Jeff L Vacirca |
director |
4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 510, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Heather L Mason |
director |
100 SOUTH SAUNDERS ROAD, SUITE 300, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| James L Tyree |
director |
100 ABBOTT PARK ROAD, ABBOTT PARK IL 60064-6400 |
| Crg Partners Iii - Parallel Fund (a) L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O CAPITAL ROYALTY L.P., 1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Mark Strobeck |
officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer |
460 EAST SWEDESFORD ROAD, SUITE 1050, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Crg Partners Iii L.p. |
10 percent owner |
1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Cr Group L.p. |
10 percent owner |
1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Andrea Heslin Smiley |
director |
600 LEE ROAD, SUITE 100, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Megan C. Timmins |
officer: SVP, Gen Csl & Sec |
600 LEE ROAD, SUITE 100, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Crg Partners Iii - Parallel Fund B (cayman) L.p. |
10 percent owner |
1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
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