Arvinas (Arvinas) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2018. Start your Free Trial

What is Arvinas Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arvinas Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Arvinas Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Arvinas's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Arvinas (Arvinas) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Arvinas Inc (NAS:ARVN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

395 Winchester Avenue, 5 Science Park, New Haven, CT, USA, 06511

Website

https://www.arvinas.com

Arvinas Inc is a United States-based biopharmaceutical company focused on improving the lives of patients suffering from debilitating and life-threatening diseases through the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies that degrade disease-causing proteins.. The company's proprietary Proteolysis-Targeting Chimera (PROTAC), work by inducing the cell's own ubiquitin-proteasome system to target, degrade and remove disease-causing proteins. The group's product candidates are bavdegalutamide, ARV-471 and ARV-766.

Executives

Ronald Peck	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ARVINAS, INC., 5 SCIENCE PARK, 395 WINCHESTER AVE., NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Sunil Agarwal	director	60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Ian Taylor	officer: Senior Vice President, Biology	C/O ARVINAS, INC., 5 SCIENCE PARK, 395 WINCHESTER AVENUE, NEW HAVEN CT 0651
John G Houston	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ARVINAS, INC., 5 SCIENCE PARK, 395 WINCHESTER AVE., NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Sean A Cassidy	officer: Chief Financial Officer	322 EAST MAIN STREET, BRANFORD CT 06405
Everett Cunningham	director	C/O QUEST DIAGNOSTICS, 500 PLAZA DRIVE, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
David K Loomis	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O 5 SCIENCE PARK, 385 WINCHESTER AVENUE, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
John D Young	director	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND ST., NEW YORK NY 10017
Briggs Morrison	director	C/O SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 400 TOTTEN POND ROAD, SUITE 110, WALTHAM MA 02451
Liam Ratcliffe	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ACCESS INDUSTRIES, INC, 40 WEST 57TH ST, 28TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Timothy M Shannon	director	C/O CURAGEN CORP, 555LONG WHARF DR. 11TH FL., NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Bradley Albert Margus	director	C/O ARVINAS, INC., 5 SCIENCE PARK, 395 WINCHESTER AVE., NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Kennedy Edward Moore Jr.	director	C/O ARVINAS, INC. 5 SCIENCE PARK, 395 WINCHESTER AVENUE, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Wendy L Dixon	director
Linda Bain	director	C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139