Arcutis Biotherapeutics (Arcutis Biotherapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Arcutis Biotherapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Arcutis Biotherapeutics (Arcutis Biotherapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (NAS:ARQT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3027 Townsgate Road, Suite 300, Westlake Village, CA, USA, 91361

Website

https://www.arcutis.com

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc is a medical dermatology company. It is developing treatments for patients with immune-mediated dermatological diseases and conditions. It is leveraging recent advances in immunology and inflammation to develop differentiated therapies against biologically validated targets to solve persistent treatment challenges in serious diseases of the skin. The company's lead product candidate ZORYVE roflumilast cream, has successfully completed pivotal Phase 3 clinical trials in plaque psoriasis, demonstrating symptomatic improvement and favorable tolerability in this population.

Executives

Masaru Matsuda	officer: SVP and General Counsel	11388 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Frazier Life Sciences Viii, L.p.	10 percent owner	601 UNION STREET, SUITE 3200, SEATTLE WA 98101
Larry Todd Edwards	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 3027 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 300, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Patrick Burnett	officer: See Remarks	C/O VERRICA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 10 NORTH HIGH STREET, SUITE 200, WEST CHESTER PA 19380
Todd Franklin Watanabe	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 2945 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 110, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Howard G. Welgus	director	C/O ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 2945 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 110, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Scott L Burrows	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 3027 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 300, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Patricia A. Turney	officer: Senior VP, Manufacturing	C/O ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 2945 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 110, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
David W Osborne	officer: Chief Technical Officer
Kenneth A. Lock	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 2945 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 110, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Matthew Richard Moore	officer: SVP and Chief Business Officer	C/O ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 3027 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 300, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Neha Krishnamohan	director	12707 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Keith R Leonard	director	ARYX THERAPEUTICS,INC., 6300 DUMBARTON CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94555
Bhaskar Chaudhuri	director	ONE ENTERPRISE, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656