Alliance Resource Partners LP (Alliance Resource Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Alliance Resource Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alliance Resource Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alliance Resource Partners LP (Alliance Resource Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Other Energy Sources » Alliance Resource Partners LP (NAS:ARLP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1717 South Boulder Avenue, Suite 400, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74119

Website

https://www.arlp.com

Alliance Resource Partners LP operates as a coal mining company based in the United States. It has four segments Illinois Basin, Appalachia, Oil & Gas Royalties and Coal Royalties. The Illinois Basin comprises underground mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia . The Appalachia segment comprises the Mettiki mining complex, the Tunnel Ridge mining complex and the MC Mining mining complex. The Oil & Gas Royalties has oil & gas mineral interests held by AR Midland and AllDale I & II and includes Alliance Minerals' equity interests in both AllDale III and Cavalier Minerals. The Coal Royalties has includes coal mineral reserves and resources owned or leased by Alliance Resource Properties.

Executives

Kathleen S. Craft	10 percent owner	2502 E. 45TH ST., TULSA OK 74105
Craft Joseph W Iii	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and Chief Executive	PO BOX 22027, TULSA OK 74121-2027
D Andrew Woodward	officer: Senior VP, New Ventures	C/O ANDX, FINDLAY OH 45840
Megan J Cordle	officer: VP, Controller and CAO	P.O. BOX 22027, TULSA OK 74121
John H Robinson	director	1 WATERHOUSE SQU, 5TH FL. 138-142 HOLBORN, LONDON X0 EC1N 2ST
Robert J Fouch	officer: Vice President and Controller	1717 S. BOULDER, SUITE 400, TULSA OK 74119
Kirk Tholen	officer: Sr VP, Chief Strategic Officer	1717 SOUTH BOULDER, SUITE 400, TULSA OK 74119
Robert J Druten	director	6503 SENECA ROAD, MISSION HILLS KS 66208
Wilson M Torrence	director	1717 SOUTH BOULDER, SUITE 400, TULSA OK 74119
Nick Carter	director
Timothy J Whelan	officer: Senior Vice President Sales	1717 SOUTH BOULDER AVENUE, SUITE 400, TULSA OK 74119
John P Neafsey	director	PO BOX 22027, C/O ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP, TULSA OK 74121
Alliance Resource Management Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	1717 SOUTH BOULDER AVENUE, SUITE 400, TULSA OK 74119
Alliance Holdings Gp, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 22027, TULSA OK 74121
Mgp Ii, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	1717 SOUTH BOULDER AVENUE, SUITE 400, TULSA OK 74119