Arlo Technologies (Arlo Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Arlo Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arlo Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Arlo Technologies (Arlo Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Arlo Technologies Inc (NYSE:ARLO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2VI:Germany 2VI:Germany

Address

2200 Faraday Avenue, Suite 150, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92008

Website

https://www.arlo.com

Arlo Technologies Inc is engaged in the provision of security and video monitoring solutions for homes and businesses. Its product portfolio comprises Arlo Security Camera, Arlo Q and Arlo Q Plus, Arlo Pro, Arlo Baby, Arlo Audio Doorbell and Arlo Chime, and Arlo Security Light. The company conducts its business and earn revenue across geographic regions: United States; Spain, Ireland and Other countries. Geographically the company receives maximum revenue from the United States.

Executives

Matthew Blake Mcrae	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O VIZIO HOLDINGS, INC., 39 TESLA, IRVINE CA 92618
Grady Summers	director	1440 MCCARTHY BLVD, MILPITAS CA 95035
Brian Busse	officer: See Remarks	2200 FARADAY AVE., SUITE 150, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Amy M Rothstein	director	704 228TH AVE NE, SAMMAMISH WA 98047
Ralph E Faison	director	12220 WORLD TRADE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Kurtis Joseph Binder	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VIZIO HOLDINGS, INC., 39 TESLA, IRVINE CA 92618
Prashant Aggarwal	director	C/O ARLO TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 350 EAST PLUMERIA DR, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Gordon Mattingly	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ARLO TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 3030 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Miller Joycelyn Carter	director	711 HIGH STREET, DES MOINES IA 50392-0300
Catriona M. Fallon	director	C/O MARIN SOFTWARE INCORPORATED, 123 MISSION STREET, 25TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Michael W Pope	director	601 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Christine Marie Gorjanc	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4500 GREAT AMERICA PARKWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Patrick Cs Lo	director
Collins Patrick J Iii	officer: See Remarks	350 E. PLUMERIA, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Netgear, Inc	10 percent owner	350 EAST PLUMERIA DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134