Arhaus (Arhaus) Predictability Rank

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What is Arhaus Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arhaus Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Arhaus (Arhaus) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Arhaus Inc (NAS:ARHS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

51 East Hines Hill Road, Boston Heights, OH, USA, 44236

Website

https://www.arhaus.com

Arhaus Inc is a growing lifestyle brand and omnichannel retailer of premium home furniture. The company offers merchandise in a number of categories, including furniture, outdoor, lighting, textiles, and decor through its Retail and eCommerce sales channels.

Executives

Kathy E Veltri	officer: CHIEF RETAIL OFFICER	FURNITURE BRANDS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
Doody Alton F Iii	director	C/O BRAVO BRIO RESTAURANT GROUP, INC., 777 GOODALE BLVD, SUITE 100, COLUMBUS OH 43212
Fs Capital Partners Vi, Llc	10 percent owner	11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 1900, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Dawn Sparks	officer: CHIEF LOGISTICS OFFICER	C/O ARHAUS, INC., 51 EAST HINES HILL ROAD, BOSTON HEIGHTS OH 44236
Lisa Chi	officer: CHIEF MERCHANDISING OFFICER	C/O ARHAUS, INC., 51 EAST HINES HILL ROAD, BOSTON HEIGHTS OH 44236
Alexis Depree	director	C/O NORDSTROM, INC., 1617 SIXTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Tim Kuckelman	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ARHAUS, INC., 51 E. HINES ROAD, BOSTON HEIGHTS OH 44236
Dawn Phillipson	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O ARHAUS, INC., 51 EAST HINES HILL ROAD, BOSTON HEIGHTS OH 44236
William Beargie	director	C/O ARHAUS, INC., 51 EAST HINES HILL ROAD, BOSTON HEIGHTS OH 44236
Albert T Adams	director	3200 NATIONAL CITY CENTER, 1900 E NINTH ST, CLEVELAND OH 44114
John P Reed	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	C/O ARHAUS, INC., 51 EAST HINES HILL ROAD, BOSTON HEIGHTS OH 44236
Jennifer E Porter	officer: CHIEF MARKETING OFFICER	C/O ARHAUS, INC., 51 EAST HINES HILL ROAD, BOSTON HEIGHTS OH 44236
Gary L Lewis	director	115 W WASHINGTON ST, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Brad Brutocao	director	11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 1900, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Fs Equity Partners Vi, L.p.	10 percent owner	11100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 1900, LOS ANGELES CA 90025