What is Aqua Metals Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Aqua Metals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Aqua Metals (Aqua Metals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5370 Kietzke Lane, Suite 201, Reno, NV, USA, 89511
Aqua Metals Inc is a United States-based company engaged in the business of recycling Lead through a novel, proprietary and patent-pending process that it developed and named AquaRefining. The company's breakthrough, AquaRefining, delivers a product, at a higher yield, eliminates toxic waste, reduces permitting and is less expensive to build than smelting. AquaRefining process will provide for the recycling of Lead acid batteries and the production of a pure grade Lead with a significantly lower cost of production, and with fewer environmental and regulatory issues, than conventional methods of Lead production.
Executives
| Vincent L Divito |
director |
329 DOLPHIN LANE, WEST BABYLON NY 11704 |
| Sung Yi |
director |
C/O AQUA METALS.COM, 5370 KIETZKE LN SUITE 201, RENO NV 89511 |
| Peifang Zhang |
director |
21640 E. BRIARWOOD DR., AURORA CO 80016 |
| Edward J Smith |
director |
635 HOOD ROAD, MARKHAM A6 L3R 4N6 |
| David Kanen |
director |
6429 NW 65TH WAY, PARKLAND FL 33067 |
| Philotimo Fund, Lp |
other: Passive Investor |
5850 CORAL RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 309, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33076 |
| Kanen Wealth Management Llc |
other: Passive Investor |
5850 CORAL RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 309, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33076 |
| David Mcmurtry |
officer: Chief Business Officer |
C/O AQUA METALS.COM, 5370 KIETZKE LN SUITE 201, RENO NV 89511 |
| Stephen Cotton |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
1010 ATLANTIC AVE, ALAMEDA CA 94501 |
| Benjamin S. Taecker |
officer: Chief Eng and Opr Officer |
C/O AQUA METALS, 2500 PERU DR., MCCARRAN NV 89437 |
| Judd Merrill |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2425 CROOKED CANYON CT., RENO NV 89521 |
| S. Shariq Yosufzai |
director |
171 ALPINE TERRACE, OAKLAND CA 94618 |
| Gayle J Gibson |
director |
2500 PERU DRIVE, MCCARRAN NV 89437 |
| Susanne Meline |
director |
P.O. BOX 515381, #86506, LOS ANGELES CA 90051 |
| Sushil Kapoor |
director |
AQUA METALS, INC., 1010 ATLANTIC AVE STE 101, ALAMEDA CA 94501 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
AQMS has been successfully added to your