What is Aprea Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Aprea Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Aprea Therapeutics (Aprea Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3805 Old Easton Road, Doylestown, PA, USA, 18902
Aprea Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing cancer therapeutics that reactivate mutant p53 tumor suppressor protein. Its product candidate, APR-246, is a small molecule p53 reactivator that is in late-stage clinical development for hematologic malignancies, including myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), and acute myeloid leukemia (AML).
Executives
| Jean-pierre Bizzari |
director |
235 LAUREL LN, HAVERFOLD PA 19041 |
| Bernd R. Seizinger |
director |
535 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Gabriela Gruia |
director |
C/O TSCAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| John P. Hamill |
officer: SrVP/CFO/Prin. Fin &Acctg. Off |
4092 NEW HOPE ROAD, FURLONG PA 18925 |
| Michael Grissinger |
director |
C/O RESTORBIO, INC., 500 BOYLSTON ST., 12TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Marc Duey |
director |
27 STRATHMORE ROAD, NATICK MA 01760 |
| Oren Gilad |
officer: President, CEO |
535 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Rifat Pamukcu |
director |
535 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Christian S Schade |
director, officer: President & CEO |
MEDAREX, 707 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Eyal C. Attar |
officer: SVP, Chief Medical Officer |
535 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Gregory Alan Korbel |
officer: Chief Business Officer |
535 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Lars B. Abrahmsen |
officer: SVP, Chief Scientific Officer |
535 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Jeremy Green |
10 percent owner |
45 W. 27TH STREET, FLOOR 11, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Redmile Group, Llc |
10 percent owner |
ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE D3-300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129 |
| 5am Ventures Iv, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107 |
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