Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (Amphastar Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (Amphastar Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:AMPH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

29A:Germany 29A:Germany

Address

11570 6th Street, Rancho Cucamonga, CA, USA, 91730

Website

http://www.amphastar.com

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses primarily on developing, manufacturing, marketing, and selling technically challenging generic and proprietary injectable, inhalation, and intranasal products. Additionally, the company sells insulin API products. The company's finished products are used in hospital or urgent care clinical settings and are contracted and distributed through group purchasing organizations and drug wholesalers. The company has two reportable segments finished pharmaceutical products and API products. Geographically the business presence of the firm is seen in the United States, China and France of which the U.S. accounts for the majority of the revenue.

Executives

Mary Z. Luo	director, 10 percent owner, officer: COO and Chief Scientist	11570 6TH STREET, RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
Floyd F. Petersen	director	11570 6TH STREET, RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
Rong Zhou	officer: EVP, Production	C/O AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 11570 SIXTH STREET, RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
Richard K Prins	director
William J Peters	officer: CFO, SVP & Treasurer	C/O AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 11570 6TH STREET, RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
Yakob Liawatidewi	officer: SVP Corp Admin Center	C/O AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 11570 SIXTH STREET, RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
Michael A Zasloff	director
Gayle Deflin	director	11570 6TH STREET, RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
Diane G. Gerst	officer: EVP, QA & Regulatory Affairs	11570 6TH STREET, RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
Howard Lee	director	13F-2, NO. 36, LANE 48, SECTION 3, NAN-JING EAST ROAD, TAIPEI, TAIWAN F4 00000
Jack Y. Zhang	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & Chief Scientific Officer	11570 6TH STREET, RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
David Maris	director	C/O AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 11570 6TH STREET, RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
Richard Koo	director	11570 6TH STREET, RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
Jason B. Shandell	director, officer: President	11570 6TH STREET, RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
Applied Physics & Chemistry Laboratories, Inc.	10 percent owner	13760 MAGNOLIA AVENUE, CHINO CA 91710