What is Applied Minerals Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Applied Minerals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Applied Minerals (Applied Minerals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1200 Silver City Road, PO Box 432, Eureka, UT, USA, 84628
Applied Minerals Inc is an exploration-stage company engaged in the production of halloysite clay and natural iron oxide solutions based in the United States. The company owns and operates the Dragon Mine in Utah, from which it extracts, processes and markets halloysite clay and iron oxide which is sold to various markets. It sells halloysite and Iron Oxide under the DRAGONITE and AMIRON brand respectively.
Executives
| Geoffrey Gates Scott |
director |
C/O AEHR TEST SYSTEMS, 400 KATO TERRACE, FREMONT CA 94539 |
| Ibs Turnaround Fund (qp) (a Ltd Partnership) |
10 percent owner |
ONE INTERNATIONAL PLACE, SUITE 3120, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Andre Zeitoun |
director, officer: President and CEO |
630 EAST MULLAN AVENUE, OSBURN ID 83849 |
| Zamani Ali |
director |
110 GREENE STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012 |
| John F Levy |
director |
C/O WASHINGTON PRIME GROUP INC., 180 EAST BROAD STREET, COLUMBUS OH 43215 |
| Mario Concha |
director |
110 GREENE STREET, SUITE 1101, NEW YORK NY 10012 |
| Michael Barry |
director |
500 PARK AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Kingdon Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
157 WEST 57TH STREET, 50TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| M. Kingdon Offshore Master Fund L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O OGIER GLOBAL (CAYMAN) LIMITED, 89 NEXUS WAY, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9009 |
| Kingdon Capital Management, L.l.c. |
10 percent owner |
152 WEST 57TH STREET, 50TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| James Berylson |
10 percent owner |
C/O BERYLSON CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 50TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Mark E Kingdon |
10 percent owner |
|
| Christopher T Carney |
officer: Interim CFO |
110 GREENE ST. #1101, NEW YORK NY 10012 |
| Ibs Capital Llc |
10 percent owner |
ONE INTERNATIONAL PLACE, 31ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| David A Taft |
director |
ONE INTERNATIONAL PLACE, 31ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110 |
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