American Noble Gas (American Noble Gas) Predictability Rank

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What is American Noble Gas Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Noble Gas Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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American Noble Gas (American Noble Gas) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » American Noble Gas Inc (OTCPK:AMNI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

15612 College Boulevard, Lenexa, KS, USA, 66219

Website

https://www.amnoblegas.com

American Noble Gas Inc is active in the energy sector. It has conducted an environmental study and developed geological information from the reprocessing and additional evaluation of existing three-dimensional (3-D) seismic data in the Perlas and Tyra concession blocks.

Executives

Thomas J Heckman	10 percent owner, officer: CEO & CFO	15612 COLLEGE BLVD., LENEXA KS 66219
John A Loeffelbein	officer: Chief Operating Officer	11900 COLLEGE BLVD., SUITE 310, OVERLAND PARK, KANSAS KS 66210
Amegy Bank National Association /gfn	10 percent owner
Daniel F Hutchins	director, officer: CFO & Secretary	11900 COLLEGE BOULEVARD, SUITE 310, OVERLAND PARK KS 66210
Renato Bertani	officer: Chief Operating Officer	633 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1800, DENVER CO 80202
Infinity Inc	director, officer: President and CEO	15612 COLLEGE BLVD., LENEXA KS 66219
Timothy A Ficker	officer: VP and Chief Financial Officer	1700 LINCOLN STREET, SUITE 3700, DENVER CO 80203
Elliot M Kaplan	director	9705 LOIRET BLVD., LENEXA KS 66219
Orrie Lee Tawes	director	CIBC OPPENHEIMER WORLD FINANCIAL CENTER, NEW YORK NY 110281
Leroy C Richie	director	15612 COLLEGE BLVD., LENEXA KS 66219
Stanton E Ross	director, officer: President and Treasurer	15612 COLLEGE BLVD., LENEXA KS 66219
Jon D Klugh	officer: CFO and Secretary	211 WEST 14TH STREET, CHANUTE KS 67202
James A Tuell	officer: Pres-Infinity Oil & Gas of Wyo	1700 LINCOLN ST., SUITE 2800, DENVER CO 80203
Stephen D Stanfield	officer: Pres-Consol. Oil Well Services	950 SEVENTEENTH ST STE 800, DENVER CO 80202
James W Dean	officer: VP - Strategic and Corp. Dev.	950 SEVENTEENTH ST STE 800, DENVER CO 80202