Alexander's (Alexander's) Predictability Rank

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What is Alexander's Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alexander's Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alexander's (Alexander's) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Alexander's Inc (NYSE:ALX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AXE:Germany AXE:Germany

Address

210 Route 4 East, Paramus, NJ, USA, 07652

Website

https://www.alx-inc.com

Alexander's Inc is a real estate investment trust engaged in leasing, managing, developing and redeveloping its properties. It has six properties in the greater New York City metropolitan area. All of the revenues come from properties located in New York City which include revenues from leasing of space to tenants at their properties and revenues from parking and tenant services.

Executives

Gary W. Hansen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	210 ROUTE 4 EAST, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Mandakini Puri	director	C/O VALIDUS HOLDINGS, 48 PAR-LA-VILLE ROAD, SUITE 1790, HAMILTON HM11 D0 HM11
Wight Russell B Jr	director
Matthew Iocco	officer: Chief Financial Officer	888 7TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Wendy Silverstein	director, .
Properties Interstate	10 percent owner	C/O VORNADO REALTY TRUST, 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Thomas R Dibenedetto	director
David Mandelbaum	director, 10 percent owner
Arthur Sonnenblick	director	888 SEVENTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Steven Roth	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO
Neil Underberg	director	888 SEVENTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Richard R West	director
Joseph Macnow	officer: CFO/EVP - Fin. & Admin.
Michael D Fascitelli	director, officer: President	MDF CAPITAL, 888 7TH AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Stephen Mann	director	450 PARK AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022