Alere (ALRPRB.PFD) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2008. Start your Free Trial

What is Alere Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alere Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Alere Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Alere's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Alere (ALRPRB.PFD) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Alere Inc (NYSE:ALRPRB.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.alere.com

Alere, Inc. develops rapid point-of-care diagnostic devices in cardiology, infectious disease, toxicology, diabetes, oncology, and women's health. North America accounts for the largest portion of the firm's revenue (55%), followed by Europe (19%), Asia-Pacific (14%), and the rest of the world (12%). Alere's headquarters are in Waltham, Massachusetts.

Executives

John Bridgen	officer: Sr VP, Business Development	51 SAWYER ROAD, C/O INVERNESS MEDICAL INNOVATIONS INC, WALTHAM MA 02453
Geoffrey S Ginsburg	director	51 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 200, WALTHAM MA 02453
Renuka Uppaluri	officer: Senior VP, Global R&D	51 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 200, WALTHAM MA 02453
Mark Gladwell	officer: Senior VP, Global Operations	51 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 200, WALTHAM MA 02453
Gregg J Powers	director	C/O QUANTUM CORPORATION, 224 AIRPORT PARKWAY SUITE 300, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Jonathan Wygant	officer: VP, Controller, CAO	3750 TORREY VIEW COURT, SAN DIEGO X1 92130
Thomas Mckillop	director	51 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 200, WALTHAM MA 02453
Melissa Guerdan	officer: SVP, Global Quality & Reg.	51 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 200, WALTHAM MA 02453
Daniella Cramp	officer: Global Pres., Cardiometabolic	51 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 200, WALTHAM MA 02453
Sanjay Malkani	officer: Global Pres., Toxicology	51 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 200, WALTHAM MA 02453
James Jr. Roosevelt	director	51 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 200, HOPKINTON MA 02453
Robert Bernard Hargadon	officer: SVP, Global Human Resources	4327 LAKE WASHINGTON BLVD NE #6208, KIRKLAND WA 98033
John F Levy	director	C/O INNVERNESS MEDICAL INNOVATIONS, INC., 51 SAWYER ROAD, WALTHAM MA 02453
John Quelch	director	C/O INVERNESS MEDICAL INNOVATIONS INC, 51 SAWYER RD, WALTHAM MA 02453
Carol R Goldberg	director	C/O INVERNESS MEDICAL INNOVATIONS INC, 51 SAWYERS RD, WALTHAM MA 02453