Alkami Technology (Alkami Technology) Predictability Rank

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What is Alkami Technology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alkami Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alkami Technology (Alkami Technology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Alkami Technology Inc (NAS:ALKT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ALKT:Mexico

Address

5601 Granite Parkway, Suite 120, Plano, TX, USA, 75024

Website

https://www.alkami.com

Alkami is a cloud-based digital banking solutions provider. Alkami Platform, allows FIs to onboard and engage new users, accelerate revenues and meaningfully improve operational efficiency with the support of a proprietary, true cloud-based, multi-tenant architecture.

Executives

W Bryan Hill	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Douglas A. Linebarger	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC., 5601 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 120, PLANO TX 75024
Stephen Bohanon	officer: Chf. Strategist & Sales Offr.	C/O ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC., 5601 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 120, PLANO TX 75024
Maria Ines Alvarez	director	C/O ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC., 5601 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 120, PLANO TX 75024
Michael D Hansen	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Kristy Ramundi	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC., 5601 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 120, PLANO TX 75024
Alex Shootman	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1301 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78746
Barbara A. Yastine	director	3120 BRECKINRIDGE BLVD., DULUTH GA 30099
Raphael Osnoss	director	C/O ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC., 5601 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 120, PLANO TX 75024
Gary Lynn Nelson	director	C/O ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC., 5601 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 120, PLANO TX 75024
H Eugene Lockhart	director	OAK HILL FARM, P.O. BOX 489, 4125 LOUISA ROAD, KESWICK VA 22947
Charles Kane	director	289 TURNPIKE RD, WESTBORO MA 01581
Christopher Todd Clark	director	3250 BRIAR PARK, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77042
Merline Saintil	director	10 SOUTH FIRST AVENUE, WALLA WALLA WA 99362
Steven R Mitchell	director	C/O ASPEN AEROGELS, INC., 30 FORBES ROAD, BUILDING B, NORTHBOROUGH MA 01532