Akouos (Akouos) Predictability Rank

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What is Akouos Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Akouos Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Akouos (Akouos) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Akouos Inc (NAS:AKUS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

645 Summer Street, Suite 200, Boston, MA, USA, 02210

Website

https://www.akouos.com

Akouos Inc is a genetic medicine company focused on developing gene therapies that restore, improve, and preserve hearing. The company is involved in developing potential genetic medicines for a variety of inner ear disorders.

Executives

Kearny Acquisition Corp	10 percent owner	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Lilly Eli & Co	10 percent owner	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, DROP CODE 1094, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Jennifer Anne Wellman	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O AKOUOS, INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, SUITE 200, BOSTON MA 02210
Sachiyo Minegishi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AKOUOS, INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, SUITE 200, BOSTON MA 02210
5am Ventures V, L.p.	10 percent owner	2200 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 110, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Kush Parmar	director, 10 percent owner	C/O 5AM VENTURES, 501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Carmen Chang	10 percent owner	2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Maha Katabi	10 percent owner	SOFINNOVA INVESTMENTS, 3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sofinnova Venture Partners X, L.p.	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Pivotal Bioventure Partners Fund I G.p., L.p.	10 percent owner	501 SECOND STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
New Enterprise Associates 16, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Paul Edward Walker	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Ecor1 Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	357 TEHAMA STREET #3, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Cormorant Asset Management, Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Heather Preston	director, 10 percent owner	C/O TPG GLOBAL, LLC, 301 COMMERCE STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102