Akili (AKLI) Predictability Rank

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What is Akili Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Akili Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Akili (AKLI) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Akili Inc (NAS:AKLI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AKLI:Mexico

Address

125 Broad Street, Fifth Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02110

Website

https://www.akiliinteractive.com

Akili Inc is a digital medicine company pioneering the development of cognitive treatments through game-changing technologies.

Executives

Jacqueline Studer	officer: Chief Legal Officer	IDEXX LABORATORIES, ONE IDEXX DRIVE, WESTBROOK ME 04092
Matthew Franklin	officer: See Remarks	AKILI INTERACTIVE LABS, INC., 125 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Martucci Walter Edward Ii	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	AKILI INTERACTIVE LABS, INC., 125 BROAD STREET 5TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Santosh Shanbhag	officer: Chief Financial Officer	AKILI INTERACTIVE LABS, INC., 125 BROAD STREET 5TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Chamath Palihapitiya	director, 10 percent owner	THE SOCIAL-CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP, L.L.C., 506 SANTA CRUZ AVENUE, SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Mary Hentges	director	C/O SHOTSPOTTER, INC., 7979 GATEWAY BLVD., STE. 210, NEWARK CA 94560
Tls Beta Pte. Ltd.	10 percent owner	60B ORCHARD ROAD #06-18, THE ATRIUM@ORCHARD, SINGAPORE U0 238891
Temasek Holdings (private) Ltd	10 percent owner	60B ORCHARD ROAD #06-18 TOWER 2, THE ATRIUM@ORCHARD, SINGAPORE U0 238891
Fullerton Management Pte Ltd	10 percent owner	60B ORCHARD ROAD #06-18 TOWER 2, THE ATRIUM@ORCHARD, SINGAPORE U0 238891
Anil Jina	officer: Chief Medical Officer	AKILI INTERACTIVE LABS, INC., 125 BROAD STREET 5TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Temasek Life Sciences Private Ltd	10 percent owner	60B ORCHARD ROAD #06-18, THE ATRIUM@ORCHARD, SINGAPORE U0 238891
Jonathan David	officer: Chief Product Officer	AKILI INTERACTIVE LABS, INC., 125 BROAD STREET 5TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Kenneth Ehlert	director	AKILI INTERACTIVE LABS, INC., 125 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Christine Lemke	director	AKILI INTERACTIVE LABS, INC., 125 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Adam Gazzaley	director	AKILI INTERACTIVE LABS, INC., 125 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110