AdaptHealth (AdaptHealth) Predictability Rank

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What is AdaptHealth Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AdaptHealth Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AdaptHealth (AdaptHealth) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » AdaptHealth Corp (NAS:AHCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

220 West Germantown Pike, Suite 250, Plymouth Meeting, PA, USA, 19462

Website

https://www.adapthealth.com

AdaptHealth Corp is engaged in providing patient-centered, healthcare-at-home solutions including home medical equipment (HME), medical supplies, and related services. It focuses on providing; sleep therapy equipment, supplies, and related services (including CPAP and bi-PAP services) to individuals suffering from obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), medical devices and supplies to patients for the treatment of diabetes (including continuous glucose monitors (CGM and insulin pumps), home medical equipment to patients discharged from acute care and other facilities, oxygen and related chronic therapy services in the home, and other HME devices and supplies on behalf of chronically ill patients with wound care, urological, incontinence, ostomy and nutritional supply needs.

Executives

Williams David Solomon Iii	director	6272 CONDON AVE, LOS ANGELES CA 90056
Skyknight Aero Holdings, Llc	director	C/O SKYKNIGHT CAPITAL, L.P., ONE LETTERMAN DR., BLDG. C, SUITE 3-950, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Albert A. Prast	officer: Chief Technology Officer	3325 BARTLETT BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32811
Jason A Clemens	officer: Chief Financial Officer	220 WEST GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 250, C/O ADAPTHEALTH LLC, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Christine E. Archbold	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	FRIARS HOUSE, 160 BLACKFRIARS ROAD, LONDON X0 SEL 8EZ
Everest Hill Group Inc.	10 percent owner	TROPIC ISLE BUILDING, P O BOX 3331, ROAD TOWN TORTOLA D8 VG 1110
Daniel Bunting	officer: COO - Branch Operations	12200 N.W. AMBASSADOR DRIVE, SUITE 326, KANSAS CITY MO 64163
Shaw Rietkerk	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O ADAPTHEALTH LLC, 220 WEST GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 250, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Christopher J Joyce	officer: General Counsel	C/O ALLIANCE ENTERTAINMENT CORP, 110 EAST 59TH STREET 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Skyknight Aero Holdings Ii, Llc	director	C/O SKYKNIGHT CAPITAL, L.P., ONE LETTERMAN DR., BLDG. C, SUITE 3-950, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Skyknight Capital, L.p.	director	C/O SKYKNIGHT CAPITAL, ONE LETTERMAN DR., BLDG. C, SUITE 3-950, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Skyknight Capital Fund Ii, L.p.	director	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING C, SUITE 3-950, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Stephen P Griggs	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	1360 PLACE VENDOME, WINTER PARK FL 32789
Gregory Belinfanti	director	7500 RIALTO BLVD, BLDG TWO, STE 100, AUSTIN TX 78735
Frank Mullen	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	4553 GLENCOE AVENUE, SUITE 300, LOS ANGELES CA 90292