PlayAGS (PlayAGS) Predictability Rank

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What is PlayAGS Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PlayAGS Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PlayAGS Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PlayAGS (PlayAGS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » PlayAGS Inc (NYSE:AGS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6775 S. Edmond Street, Suite 300, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89118

Website

https://www.playags.com

PlayAGS Inc is a designer and supplier of gaming products and services for the gaming industry. The company mainly supplies electronic gaming machines (EGM), server-based systems and back-office systems which are used by casinos, and various gaming locations. Its operating segments are EGM, Table Products, and Interactive. The EGM segment offers a selection of video slot titles developed for the global marketplace as well as EGM cabinets. Its Table Products segments include live proprietary table games and side bets, as well as ancillary table products. The Interactive segment consists of delivering games through mobile apps such as Lucky Play Casino and Vegas Fever. It earns a majority of its revenue from the Electronic Gaming Machines segment and geographically from the United States.

Executives

Robert Barron Ziems	officer: Chief Legal Officer, Secretary	6775 S. EDMOND ST., STE. 300, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Adam Chibib	director	7501B NORTH CAPITAL OF TEXAS HGHWY, AUSTIN TX 78731
Anna Massion	director	5475 S. DECATUR BLVD., STE #100, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Ap Gaming Voteco, Llc	10 percent owner	5475 S. DECATUR BLVD., LAS VEGAS NV 89118
David-jacques Farahi	director	3800 S. VIRGINIA STREET, RENO NV 89502
David Lopez	officer: Chief Executive Officer	7250 S. TENAYA WAY, SUITE 100, LAS VEGAS NV 89113
Kimo Akiona	officer: Treas, CFO & Chief Acctg. Off.	5475 S. DECATUR BLVD., STE #100, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Victor Gallo	officer: GC, Secy. & Compliance Officer	5475 S. DECATUR BLVD., STE #100, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Geoff Freeman	director	5475 S. DECATUR BLVD., SUITE 100, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Yvette Landau	director
Eric Press	director	1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICA 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Marc J Rowan	10 percent owner	APOLLO ADVISORS LP, 1301 AVE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10019
David Sambur	director, other: See Remarks	9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Sigmund Lee	officer: Chief Tech. Officer	5475 S. DECATUR BLVD., STE #100, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Daniel Evan Cohen	director, other: See Remarks	C/O APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019