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Aeries Technology (Aeries Technology) Predictability Rank


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What is Aeries Technology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aeries Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Aeries Technology Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Aeries Technology (Aeries Technology) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Aeries Technology Inc (NAS:AERT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Twin Towers Lane, Paville House, 5th Floor, Prabhadevi, Mumbai, MH, IND, 400025
Website
https://www.aeriestechnology.com
Aeries Technology Inc is a global professional and management services partner offering a range of management consultancy services for private equity sponsors and their portfolio companies with engagement models that are designed to provide a mix of deep vertical specialty, functional expertise, and digital systems and solutions to scale, optimize and transform a client's business operations. It supports and drives its client's global growth by providing a range of management consultancy services involving professional advisory services and operations management services to build and manage dedicated delivery centers in appropriate locations based on customer business needs.
Executives
Tony Marion Pearce director, officer: Executive Chairman 123 EAST 200 NORTH, ALPINE UT 84004
Terry Vernon Pearce director, officer: Executive Vice-Chairman 123 EAST 200 NORTH, ALPINE UT 84004
David V. Crowder director C/O GSV CAPITAL CORP., 2956 WOODSIDE ROAD, WOODSIDE CA 94062
Lynne Marie Laube director C/O CARDLYTICS, INC., 675 PONCE DE LEON AVENUE NE, SUITE 6000, ATLANTA GA 30308
Tanner Ainge director 1633 W. INNOVATION WAY, 5TH FLOOR, LEHI UT 84043
Worldwide Webb Acquisition Sponsor, Llc 10 percent owner 770 E TECHNOLOGY WAY F13-16, OREM UT 84097
Daniel S. Webb director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, CFO 770 E TECHNOLOGY WAY F13-16, OREM UT 84097
Davis Smith director 770 E TECHNOLOGY WAY F13-16, OREM UT 84097