Aethlon Medical (Aethlon Medical) Predictability Rank

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What is Aethlon Medical Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aethlon Medical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aethlon Medical (Aethlon Medical) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Aethlon Medical Inc (NAS:AEMD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EJU0:Germany

Address

11555 Sorrento Valley Road, Suite 203, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.aethlonmedical.com

Aethlon Medical Inc is a medical technology company. The company is focused on addressing unmet needs in health and biodefense. The company is focused on the development of Hemopurifier, a clinical-stage therapeutic device designed to combat cancer and eliminate life-threatening viruses from the circulatory system.

Executives

Nicolas Gikakis	director	11555 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SUITE 203, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Lee D Arnold	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 99 HUDSON STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Angela Rossetti	director	PALATIN TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4B CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Steven P Larosa	officer: Chief Medical Officer	9635 GRANITE RIDGE DRIVE SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Chetan Shah	director	9 GRACE HILL COURT, TITUSVILLE NJ 08560
Fisher Charles J Jr	director	C/O AETHLON MEDICAL, INC., 9635 GRANITE RIDGE DR., SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Guy F. Cipriani	director	1727 EAGLERIDGE DRIVE, BELLINGHAM WA 98226
Sabrina Martucci Johnson	director	11119 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Rodell Timothy C Jr	officer: Interim CEO	201 MIDLAND AVE, ASPEN CO 81611
Weiner Family Revocable Trust Ellen R.	10 percent owner	10645 N. TATUM BOULEVARD, SUITE 200-166, PHOENIX AZ 85028
Phillip A Ward	director	8910 UNIVERSITY CENTER LANE #660, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Thomas V Wornham	director	8910 UNIVERSITY CENTER LANE #660, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Rodney S Kenley	director, officer: President	9635 GRANITE RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
James B Frakes	officer: Chief Financial Officer	9635 GRANITE RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Barry Franklyn S Jr	director	1141 DELAWARE AVENUE #3N, BUFFALO NY 14209