ABERDEEN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITYOME FUND, (ABERDEEN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITYOME FUND,) Predictability Rank

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What is ABERDEEN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITYOME FUND, Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ABERDEEN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITYOME FUND, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ABERDEEN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITYOME FUND, (ABERDEEN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITYOME FUND,) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » ABERDEEN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME FUND, INC. (AMEX:AEF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1900 Market Street, Suite 200, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19103

Website

https://www.aberdeenaef.com

ABERDEEN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME FUND, INC. is a closed-end investment company. The Fund's investment objective is to seek to provide both current income and long-term capital appreciation. It invests in the public equity and fixed income markets of Chile. The Fund invests in a range of sectors, including financials, consumer staples, utilities, consumer discretionary, materials, energy, information technology, Private Equity, telecommunication services, healthcare, real estate and industrials.

Executives

Peter Branner	other: Other - Director of Adviser	C/O ABRDN, 1900 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Xavier Meyer	other: Director of Adviser	C/O ABRDN, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Katie Lynn Gebauer	officer: Vice President	C/O ABRDN, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Katherine A. Corey	officer: Vice President	1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Grant Thomas Hotson	other: Director of Adviser	1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Robert W. Hepp	officer: Vice President	C/O ABRDN, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILDADELPHIA PA 19103
Andrew Wonil Kim	officer: Vice President	C/O ABRDN, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILDADELPHIA PA 19103
Brian Kordeck	officer: Vice President	C/O ABRDN, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILDADELPHIA PA 19103
Michael Marsico	officer: Vice President	C/O ABRDN, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILDADELPHIA PA 19103
Neil Andrew Slater	other: Director of Adviser	C/O ABRDN, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Rahn K Porter	director	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Bill Maher	director	600 WEST BROADWAY, 30TH FL., SAN DIEGO CA 92101
Michael Mark Redman	other: Director of Adviser	C/O ABERDEEN STANDARD INVESTMENTS, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Robert Mckillop	other: Director of Adviser	C/O ABERDEEN STANDARD INVESTMENTS, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Alex Hoctor-duncan	other: Director of Adviser	C/O ABERDEEN STANDARD INVESTMENTS, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103