Adverum Biotechnologies (Adverum Biotechnologies) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is Adverum Biotechnologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Adverum Biotechnologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Adverum Biotechnologies Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Adverum Biotechnologies's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Adverum Biotechnologies (Adverum Biotechnologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Adverum Biotechnologies Inc (NAS:ADVM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AVU:Germany

Address

100 Cardinal Way, Redwood CIty, CA, USA, 94063

Website

https://www.adverum.com

Adverum Biotechnologies Inc is a U.S.-based clinical-stage gene therapy company. It develops gene therapy product candidates intended to provide durable efficacy by inducing sustained expression of a therapeutic protein. The company primarily generates revenue through license, research and collaboration arrangements with its strategic partners. Its lead product candidate is ADVM-022 which is a single, in-office intravitreal (IVT) injection gene therapy designed to deliver long-term durable levels of aflibercept associated with a robust, sustained treatment response, reducing the treatment burden and fluctuations in macular fluid associated with frequent anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) injections. It has one segment developing and commercializing gene therapeutics.

Executives

C. David Nicholson,	director	103 CHILDS ROAD, BASKIN RIDGE NJ 07092
Setareh Seyedkazemi	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O ADVERUM BIOTECHNOLOGIES, INC., 100 CARDINAL DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Linda M Rubinstein	officer: Chief Financial Officer	25861 INDUSTRIAL BLVD, HAYWARD CA 94545
Peter Soparkar	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O ADVERUM BIOTECHNOLOGIES, INC., 100 CARDINAL WAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Brigit Riley	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	100 CARDINAL WAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Laurent Fischer	director, officer: CEO and Director	C/O ADVERUM BIOTECHNOLOGIES, INC., 100 CARDINAL WAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Richard Beckman	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ADVERUM BIOTECHNOLOGIES, INC., 100 CARDINAL WAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Nancy E Pecota	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	ARADIGM CORPORATION, 3929 POINT EDEN WAY, HAYWARD CA 94545
John Rakow	officer: SVP, Genl Counsel, Acting CFO	C/O ADVERUM BIOTECHNOLOGIES, INC., 100 CARDINAL WAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Rupert D'souza	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ADVERUM BIOTECHNOLOGIES, INC., 100 CARDINAL WAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Dawn Svoronos	director	C/O MEDIVATION, INC., 525 MARKET ST., 36TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Soo Hong	director	C/O ADVERUM BIOTECHNOLOGIES, INC., 800 SAGINAW DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Rabia Gurses Ozden	director	C/O AKOUOS, INC., 645 SUMMER STREET SUITE 200, BOSTON MA 02210
James Paul Scopa	director	601 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Julie Clark	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ADVERUM BIOTECHNOLOGIES, INC., 800 SAGINAW DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063