What is Aditxt Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Aditxt Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Aditxt (Aditxt) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
737 North Fifth Street, Suite 200, Richmond, VA, USA, 23219
Aditxt Inc is a life sciences company that develops, builds, and grows innovations with a focus on monitoring and modulating the immune system. It develops products designed to induce tolerance to transplanted organs. Its portfolio consists of two programs Adimune and AditxtScore. It firm's immunosuppressive (anti-rejection) drugs have made possible life-saving organ transplantation procedures as these drugs prevent or delay organ rejection. It is also developing a technology called Apoptotic DNA Immunotherapy (ADi) which utilizes a tolerogenic approach that utilizes the body's natural process of cell death, to deliver a modified antigen that signals the immune system to become tolerant to transplanted tissues.
Executives
| Charles Athle Nelson |
director |
11-F, BUILDING 12, SUNKING PLAZA, GAOJIAO ROAD, HANGZHOU, ZHEJIANG F4 311122 |
| Bnp Paribas Securities Corp |
10 percent owner |
787 SEVENTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Matthew Shatzkes |
officer: Chief Legal Officer and GC |
737 N. FIFTH STREET, SUITE 200, RICHMOND VA 23219 |
| Lauren Chung |
director |
1620 BEACON STREET, OXNARD CA 93033 |
| Thomas J Farley |
officer: PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER |
2569 WYANDOTTE ST., SUITE 101, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043 |
| Jeffrey W. Runge |
director |
C/O PHARMATHENE, INC., ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 450, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401 |
| Rowena Albanna |
officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER |
11161 ANDERSON STREET, SUITE 105-10014, LOMA LINDA CA 92354 |
| Rosland Fisher Mcleod |
director |
11161 ANDERSON STREET, SUITE 105-10014, LOMA LINDA CA 92354 |
| Pankovcin Corinne |
officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT CORP OF AMERICA, 405 PARK AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Laura E Anthony |
director |
LAURA ANTHONY, 120 S. OLIVE AVE, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401 |
| Namvar Kiaie |
director |
11161 ANDERSON STREET, SUITE 105-10014, LOMA LINDA CA 92354 |
| Brian Michael Brady |
director |
11161 ANDERSON STREET, SUITE 105-10014, LOMA LINDA CA 92354 |
| Amro A. Albanna |
director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER |
871 MARLBOROUGH AVENUE, SUITE 100, RIVERSIDE CA 92507 |
| Shahrokh Shabahang |
director, officer: CHIEF INNOVATION OFFICER |
11161 ANDERSON STREET, SUITE 105-10014, LOMA LINDA CA 92354 |
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