Adaptive Biotechnologies (Adaptive Biotechnologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Adaptive Biotechnologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Adaptive Biotechnologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Adaptive Biotechnologies (Adaptive Biotechnologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (NAS:ADPT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1HM:Germany

Address

1165 Eastlake Avenue East, Seattle, WA, USA, 98109

Website

https://www.adaptivebiotech.com

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp is a company advancing the field of immune-driven medicine by harnessing the inherent biology of the adaptive immune system to transform the diagnosis and treatment of disease. Its clinical diagnostic product, clonoSEQ, is test authorized by the FDA for the detection and monitoring of minimal residual disease ("MRD") in patients with multiple myeloma ("MM"), B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia ("ALL") and chronic lymphocytic leukemia ("CLL") and is also available as a CLIA-validated laboratory developed test ("LDT") for patients with other lymphoid cancers, including diffuse large B-cell lymphoma ("DLBCL").

Executives

Kyle Piskel	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 1551 EASTLAKE AVE E STE 200, SEATTLE WA 98102
Nitin Sood	officer: Chief Commercial Officer, MRD	C/O ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 1551 EASTLAKE AVE E STE 200, SEATTLE WA 98102
Tycho Peterson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 1165 EASTLAKE AVE E, SEATTLE WA 98109
R Mark Adams	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 1551 EASTLAKE AVE E STE 200, SEATTLE WA 98102
Michelle Renee Griffin	director	19723 NE 65TH LANE, KIRKLAND WA 98033
Stacy L Taylor	officer: SVP and General Counsel	C/O ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 1551 EASTLAKE AVENUE E SUITE 200, SEATTLE WA 98102
Leslie Trigg	director	C/O OUTSET MEDICAL, 1830 BERING ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Kevin T Conroy	director	5505 ENDEAVOR LANE, MADISON WI 53719
Robert Hershberg	director	3005 FIRST AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98121
Peter M Neupert	director	13920 SE EASTGATE WAY, STE 300, BELLEVUE WA 98005
Sharon Benzeno	officer: Chief Commercial Ofc Imm Med	C/O ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 1551 EASTLAKE AVE E STE 200, SEATTLE WA 98102
Harlan S Robins	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 1551 EASTLAKE AVE E STE 200, SEATTLE WA 98102
Francis Lo	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 1551 EASTLAKE AVE E STE 200, SEATTLE WA 98102
Michael J Pellini	director	222 DUTTON MILL RD, WILLISTOWN PA 19380
Chad M Robins	director, officer: CEO and Chairman	C/O ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 1551 EASTLAKE AVE E STE 200, SEATTLE WA 98102