ADMA Biologics (ADMA Biologics) Predictability Rank

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What is ADMA Biologics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ADMA Biologics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ADMA Biologics (ADMA Biologics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » ADMA Biologics Inc (NAS:ADMA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

465 State Route 17, Ramsey, NJ, USA, 07446

Website

https://www.admabiologics.com

ADMA Biologics Inc is an end-to-end commercial biopharmaceutical company dedicated to manufacturing, marketing and developing specialty plasma-derived biologics for the treatment of immunodeficient patients at risk for infection and others at risk for certain infectious diseases. Its targeted patient populations include immune-compromised individuals who suffer from an underlying immune deficiency disorder or who may be immune-suppressed for medical reasons. The company sells plasma-derived intermediate fractions to certain customers, which are generated as part of its FDA-approved manufacturing process for IG and IVIG products. It also provides laboratory contracting services to certain customers and anticipates providing contract filling, labeling and packing services.

Executives

Alison Cecily Finger	director	C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., 60 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Jerrold B Grossman	director	65 COMMERCE WAY, HACKENSACK NJ 07601
Young Kwon	director	C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 675 WEST KENDALL STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Bryant Fong	director	2170 VALLEJO STREET #101, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
Adam S Grossman	director, officer: President and CEO	65 COMMERCE WAY, HACKENSACK NJ 07601
Brian Lenz	officer: EVP, CFO	65 COMMERCE WAY, HACKENSACK NJ 07601
Lawrence P. Guiheen	director	65 COMMERCE WAY, HACKENSACK NJ 07601
Martha J Demski	director	7770 REGENTS ROAD SUITE 113-505, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
James Mond	officer: CSO/CMO	65 COMMERCE WAY, HACKENSACK NJ 07601
Biotest Divestiture Trust	10 percent owner	C/O ERIC ROSENBACH, TRUSTEE, 402 NORFOLK STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Joseph Edelman	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Perceptive Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Eric I Richman	director	C/O REV CAPITAL II, LLC, 9740 SORREL AVE, POTOMAC MD 20854
Biotest Pharmaceuticals Corp	director, 10 percent owner	5800 PARK OF COMMERCE BLVD., NW, BOCA RATON FL 33487