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Arsenal Digital Holdings (Arsenal Digital Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is Arsenal Digital Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Arsenal Digital Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Arsenal Digital Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Arsenal Digital Holdings (Arsenal Digital Holdings) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2925 Richmond Avenue, Suite 1550, Houston, TX, USA, 77098
Arsenal Digital Holdings Inc is a service provider specializing in energy and power development projects.
Executives
West Peak Ventures Of Canada Ltd. 10 percent owner 1010-789 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1H2
Woodburn Holdings, Ltd. director, 10 percent owner, officer: Secretary 885 PYRFORD ROAD, WEST VANCOUVER A1 V7S 2A2
James Douglas Frater director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & PRESIDENT 609 GRANVILLE STREET, SUITE 880, P.O. BOX 10321, PACIFIC CENTER, VANCOUVER A1 V7Y 1G5
Craig A Harting director, 10 percent owner, officer: COO 609 GRANVILLE STREET, SUITE 880, P.O. BOX 10321, PACIFIC CENTER, VANCOUVER A1 V7Y 1G5
West Peak Ventures Of Canada Ltd 10 percent owner 885 PYRFORD ROAD, WEST VANCOUVER A1 V7S A2A
Elden Schorn director, 10 percent owner, officer: President CEO CFO & Treasurer STE 1247 - 235 KEITH ROAD, WEST VANCOUVER A1 V7T 1L5
Hugh Chisholm 10 percent owner 885 PYRFORD ROAD, VANCOUVER A1 V7S A2A
Bruce Chisholm 10 percent owner 885 PYRFORD ROAD, VANCOUVER A1 V7S A2A
Kathrine Macdonald 10 percent owner 885 PYRFORD ROAD, WEST VANCOUVER A1 V7S 2A2
Robert M Baker director, 10 percent owner, officer: President CEO CFO Treas/Sec 600-666 BURRARD STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C3P6