ACV Auctions (ACV Auctions) Predictability Rank

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What is ACV Auctions Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ACV Auctions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ACV Auctions Predictability Rank Related Terms

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ACV Auctions (ACV Auctions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » ACV Auctions Inc (NAS:ACVA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

640 Ellicott Street, Suite 321, Buffalo, NY, USA, 14203

Website

https://www.acvauctions.com

ACV Auctions Inc is a mobile platform for wholesale car auctions. It provides a digital marketplace for wholesale vehicle transactions and data services that offer transparent and accurate vehicle information for customers.

Executives

William Zerella	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FITBIT, INC., 405 HOWARD STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Michael Waterman	officer: Chief Sales Officer	C/O ACV AUCTIONS INC., 640 ELLICOTT STREET, #321, BUFFALO NY 14203
Craig Eric Anderson	officer: CCDSO and Chief Legal Officer	C/O ACV AUCTIONS INC., 640 ELLICOTT STREET, #321, BUFFALO NY 14203
George Chamoun	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SYNACOR, INC., 40 LA RIVIERE DRIVE, SUITE 300, BUFFALO NY 14202
Bessemer Venture Partners Ix L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS, 1865 PALMER AVENUE, SUITE 104, LARCHMONT NY 10538
Vikas Mehta	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ACV AUCTIONS INC., 640 ELLICOTT STREET, #321, BUFFALO NY 14203
Kirsten Castillo	director	5 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 160, MALVERN PA 19355
Brian Hirsch	director	C/O ACV AUCTIONS INC., 640 ELLICOTT STREET, #321, BUFFALO NY 14203
Eileen A Kamerick	director	200 NORTH ADAMS STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
Robert P Goodman	director	1865 PALMER AVENUE, SUITE 104, LARCHMONT NY 10538
Leanne Fitzgerald	officer: Chief Legal Officer	1 WAYSIDE ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Bessemer Venture Partners Ix Institutional L.p.	10 percent owner	1865 PALMER AVENUE, SUITE 104, LARCHMONT NY 10538
Deer Ix & Co. L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS, 1865 PALMER AVENUE, SUITE 104, LARCHMONT NY 10538
Deer Ix & Co. Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS, 1865 PALMER AVENUE, SUITE 104, LARCHMONT NY 10538
15 Angels Iii Llc	10 percent owner	1865 PALMER AVENUE, SUITE 104, LARCHMONT NY 10538