Accolade (Accolade) Predictability Rank

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What is Accolade Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Accolade Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Accolade Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Accolade (Accolade) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Accolade Inc (NAS:ACCD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4NE1:Germany

Address

1201 Third Avenue, Suite 1700, Seattle, WA, USA, 98101

Website

https://www.accolade.com

Accolade Inc offers technology-enabled solutions that help people better understand, navigate, and utilize the healthcare system and their workplace benefits. It generates revenue by providing personalized health guidance solutions to members.

Executives

Richard Eskew	officer: EVP General Counsel	C/O ACCOLADE, INC., 660 WEST GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 500, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Stephen H. Barnes	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ACCOLADE, INC., 660 WEST GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 500, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Rajeev Singh	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	6222 185TH AVENUE NE, REDMOND WA 98052
Robert N Cavanaugh	officer: President	1601 CLOVERFIELD BLVD., SUITE 620, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Mchugh Colin	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ACCOLADE, INC., 660 W. GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 500, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Michael W Hilton	officer: Chief Product Officer	6222 185TH AVE, REDMOND WA 98052
Peter S Klein	director	C/O MICROSOFT CORPORATION, ONE MICROSOFT WAY, REDMOND WA 98052-6399
Cindy Kent	director	7601 PENN AVENUE SOUTH, RICHFIELD MN 55418
Patricia L Wadors	director	C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC, 881 MARTIN AVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95050
Dawn G Lepore	director	1425 BROADWAY PMB 41, SEATTLE WA 99122
Jeffrey D Jordan	director	2865 SAND HILL ROAD #101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Elizabeth G Nabel	director	BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL, 75 FRANCIS ST, BOSTON MA 02115
Jeffrey S Brodsky	director	C/O MORGAN STANLEY 1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Thomas J Neff	director	SPENCER STUART & ASSOCIATES, 277 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10172
William H. Frist	director	600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111