What is Associated Capital Group Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Associated Capital Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Associated Capital Group (Associated Capital Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
191 Mason Street, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06830
Associated Capital Group Inc is a diversified global financial services company. It operates in the business of alternative investment management, institutional research services, and cash and other assets through subsidiaries. The activities of its subsidiaries comprise publishing daily research notes and full reports using private market value with a catalyst methodology and also products and customized solutions utilizing private market value with catalyst method of investing.
Executives
| Ian J Mcadams |
officer: Interim Co-CFO |
191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Patrick Huvane |
officer: Interim Co-CFO |
780 THIRD AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Richard T Prins |
director |
C/O ASSOCIATED CAPITAL GROUP, INC., 191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Peter D. Goldstein |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
249 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 503, PALM BEACH FL 33480 |
| Timothy Schott |
officer: Executive VP & CFO |
191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Mario J Gabelli |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO |
191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Marc Gabelli |
director |
401 THEODORE FREMD AVE, RYE NY 10580 |
| Kenneth D Masiello |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Elisa M. Wilson |
director |
C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Francis J Conroy |
officer: Interim Chief FinancialOfficer |
ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Frederic V Salerno |
director |
TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121 |
| Frederick J Mancheski |
10 percent owner |
5400 PLANTATION ROAD, UNIT 1256, CAPTIVA FL 33924 |
| Douglas R Jamieson |
officer: President & CEO |
C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Agnes Mullady |
officer: Executive Vice President |
ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Bruce M Lisman |
director |
C/O MERCHANTS BANK, 275 KENNEDY DR, S. BURLINGTON VT 05403 |
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