AbCellera Biologics (AbCellera Biologics) Predictability Rank

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What is AbCellera Biologics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AbCellera Biologics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AbCellera Biologics (AbCellera Biologics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » AbCellera Biologics Inc (NAS:ABCL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8QQ:Germany

Address

2215 Yukon Street, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V5Y 0A1

Website

https://www.abcellera.com

AbCellera Biologics Inc is an antibody discovery and development engine that's specifically designed to address the barriers of conventional discovery, finding the optimal clinical candidate with greater precision and speed, getting to the clinic and patients sooner. With the integrated AbCellera platform, the company's experts search a wide range of diverse antibodies to select the most effective and developable leads fast and set partners up for enduring success. The company have extensive experience forging partnerships with emerging biotechs and leading pharmaceutical companies. AbCellera leverages proprietary hardware, software, and tools along with the latest data science, to operate as strategic partners and help develop optimized solutions faster for any program.

Executives

John S. Montalbano	director	C/O ABCELLERA BIOLOGICS INC., 2215 YUKON STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V5Y 0A1
Michael R Hayden	director	C/O ASPREVA PHARMACEUTICALS CORPORATION, 1203-4464 MARKHAM STREET, VICTORIA A1 V8Z 7X8
Veronique Lecault	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ABCELLERA BIOLOGICS INC., 2215 YUKON STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V5Y 0A1
Thermopylae Holdings Ltd.	10 percent owner	2215 YUKON STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V5Y 0A1
Andrew Booth	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ABCELLERA BIOLOGICS INC., 2215 YUKON STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V5Y 0A1
Andrew Lo	director	C/O ALPHASIMPLEX GROUP, LLC, ONE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, 9TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
John Hamer	director, 10 percent owner	PO BOX 14528, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709-4528
Ester Falconer	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O ABCELLERA BIOLOGICS INC., 2215 YUKON STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V5Y 0A1
Hansen Carl L. G.	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ABCELLERA BIOLOGICS INC., 2215 YUKON STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V5Y 0A1
Tryn Stimart	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O ABCELLERA BIOLOGICS INC., 2215 YUKON STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V5Y 0A1
Peter Thiel	director	9200 SUNSET BOULEVARD, SUITE 1110, WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069
Dcvc Bio, L.p.	10 percent owner	317 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Dcvc Bio Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	270 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Zachary Bogue	10 percent owner	270 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Matthew Ocko	10 percent owner	270 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301