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Altisource Asset Management (Altisource Asset Management) Predictability Rank


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What is Altisource Asset Management Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Altisource Asset Management Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Altisource Asset Management Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Altisource Asset Management (Altisource Asset Management) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Altisource Asset Management Corp (AMEX:AAMC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
IMPM IOR COOP PFSI NSE:LICHSGFIN NSE:PNBHOUSING WD BOM:543335 TSX:FN BOM:541988 LSE:OSB LSE:PAG BOM:511196 BOM:543259 RKT BOM:535789 ECPG FNMA NZSE:HGH GHLD
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5100 Tamarind Reef, Christiansted, VIR, 00820
Website
https://www.altisourceamc.com
Altisource Asset Management Corp is an asset management company. It provides asset management, portfolio management, and corporate governance services to investment vehicles that own real estate-related assets. The firm's business is to provide its services to the client in a manner that builds long-term value and a stable income stream while generating management fees for the firm and developing additional investment strategies and vehicles.
Executives
King Theodore Walker Cheng-de 10 percent owner UNIT 1502, 15TH FLOOR, 99 HENNESSY ROAD, WANCHAI K3 999077
Charles L Frischer director 3156 EAST LAURELHURST DRIVE, NE, SEATTLE WA 98105
Elsie Elaine Erbey 10 percent owner P.O. BOX AP-59223, PMB 3406, NASSAU C5 00000
Jason A Kopcak officer: President/COO 112 TRADD ST, CHARLESTON SC 29401
Ricardo Byrd director C/O AAMC, 5100 TAMARIND REEF, CHRISTIANSTED VI 00820
De Jongh John P Jr. director C/O ALTISOURCE ASSET MANAGEMENT, 5100 TAMARIND REEF, CHRISTIANSTED VI 00820
Stephen Ramiro Krallman officer: CFO and Principal Acct Officer 3217 PLAZA DE RAFAEL, LAS VEGAS NV 89102
Kevin Francis Sullivan officer: Gen Counsel/Chief Compliance 30 BATTLEBROOK LN, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Thomas K Mccarthy officer: Interim CEO 800 JUNO OCEAN WALK UNIT 104A, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
Paris Graham Singer officer: General Counsel and Secretary 5100 TAMARIND REEF, CHRISTIANSTED VI 00820
Christopher D. Moltke-hansen officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O AAMC, 5100 TAMARIND REEF, CHRISTIANSTED VI 00820
Indroneel Chatterjee director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer 40, AVENUE MONTEREY, LUXEMBOURG CITY N4 L-2163
John A. Engerman director C/O AAMC, 5100 TAMARIND REEF, CHRISTIANSTED VI 00820
William C Erbey 10 percent owner PO BOX 25437, CHRISTIANSTED VI 00824
Dale Kurland director C/O ALTISOURCE ASSET MANAGEMENT CORP, 402 STRAND STREET, FREDERIKSTED, ST. CROIX VI 00840