Travelers Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Travelers for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 0.9482 | + | 0.528 * 1 | + | 0.404 * 1.0032 | + | 0.892 * 1.0615 | + | 0.115 * 1 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 0.9585 | + | 4.679 * -0.042769 | - | 0.327 * 0.9714 |
| = | -2.66 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Mar24) TTM: | Last Year (Mar23) TTM: |
Total Receivables was CHF19,722 Mil.
Revenue was 9977.201 + 9457.453 + 9567.246 + 9092.239 = CHF38,094 Mil.
Gross Profit was 9977.201 + 9457.453 + 9567.246 + 9092.239 = CHF38,094 Mil.
Total Current Assets was CHF93,778 Mil.
Total Assets was CHF113,217 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was CHF0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was CHF634 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was CHF4,722 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was CHF3,796 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was CHF7,048 Mil.
Net Income was 997.898 + 1406.165 + 363.438 + -12.606 = CHF2,755 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 99.523 + 67.454 + 90.86 + 89.14 = CHF347 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 1295.579 + 1819.539 + 2740.182 + 1394.72 = CHF7,250 Mil.
|
Total Receivables was CHF19,595 Mil.
Revenue was 8981.052 + 8979.692 + 9063.37 + 8863.747 = CHF35,888 Mil.
Gross Profit was 8981.052 + 8979.692 + 9063.37 + 8863.747 = CHF35,888 Mil.
Total Current Assets was CHF90,788 Mil.
Total Assets was CHF109,535 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was CHF0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was CHF757 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was CHF4,641 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was CHF4,144 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was CHF6,656 Mil.
|
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (19722.477 / 38094.139) | / | (19594.686 / 35887.861) |
| = | 0.51773 | / | 0.545998 |
| | = | 0.9482 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (35887.861 / 35887.861) | / | (38094.139 / 38094.139) |
| = | 1 | / | 1 |
| | = | 1 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (93778.401 + 0) / 113216.526) | / | (1 - (90787.848 + 0) / 109534.776) |
| = | 0.17169 | / | 0.17115 |
| | = | 1.0032 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 38094.139 | / | 35887.861 |
| | = | 1.0615 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (756.547 / (756.547 + 0)) | / | (634.386 / (634.386 + 0)) |
| = | 1 | / | 1 |
| | = | 1 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (4722.097 / 38094.139) | / | (4641.026 / 35887.861) |
| = | 0.123959 | / | 0.12932 |
| | = | 0.9585 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((7048.375 + 3796.099) / 113216.526) | / | ((6656.196 + 4144.389) / 109534.776) |
| = | 0.095785 | / | 0.098604 |
| | = | 0.9714 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (2754.895 - 346.977 | - | 7250.02) | / | 113216.526 |
| | = | -0.042769 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Travelers has a M-score of -2.66 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
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