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Japan Tobacco (TSE:2914) Beneish M-Score : -2.43 (As of May. 08, 2024)


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What is Japan Tobacco Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.43 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

TSE:2914' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.78   Med: -2.43   Max: -2.3
Current: -2.43

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Japan Tobacco was -2.30. The lowest was -2.78. And the median was -2.43.


Japan Tobacco Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Japan Tobacco Beneish M-Score Chart

Japan Tobacco Annual Data
Trend Mar14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.67 -2.78 -2.63 -2.43 -2.43

Japan Tobacco Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.43 -2.41 -2.55 -2.56 -2.43

Competitive Comparison of Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score

For the Tobacco subindustry, Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Tobacco Products Industry

For the Tobacco Products industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Japan Tobacco Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Japan Tobacco for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0493+0.528 * 1.037+0.404 * 0.9442+0.892 * 1.0689+0.115 * 1.1404
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9748+4.679 * -0.011635-0.327 * 1.0699
=-2.43

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec23) TTM:Last Year (Dec22) TTM:
Total Receivables was 円535,302 Mil.
Revenue was 684059 + 764206 + 727534 + 665278 = 円2,841,077 Mil.
Gross Profit was 337460 + 448642 + 426055 + 402946 = 円1,615,103 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円3,259,561 Mil.
Total Assets was 円7,282,097 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円821,499 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円179,652 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円981,051 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円1,927,276 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円908,926 Mil.
Net Income was 40278 + 155001 + 142326 + 144684 = 円482,289 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 円0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 76580 + 283574 + 151197 + 55663 = 円567,014 Mil.
Total Receivables was 円477,239 Mil.
Revenue was 649284 + 741720 + 685323 + 581505 = 円2,657,832 Mil.
Gross Profit was 364777 + 443107 + 408735 + 350224 = 円1,566,843 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円2,723,591 Mil.
Total Assets was 円6,548,078 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円775,957 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円199,651 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円941,539 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円1,562,664 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円821,003 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(535302 / 2841077) / (477239 / 2657832)
=0.188415 / 0.17956
=1.0493

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1566843 / 2657832) / (1615103 / 2841077)
=0.589519 / 0.568483
=1.037

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (3259561 + 821499) / 7282097) / (1 - (2723591 + 775957) / 6548078)
=0.439576 / 0.465561
=0.9442

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=2841077 / 2657832
=1.0689

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(199651 / (199651 + 775957)) / (179652 / (179652 + 821499))
=0.204643 / 0.179445
=1.1404

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(981051 / 2841077) / (941539 / 2657832)
=0.34531 / 0.354251
=0.9748

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((908926 + 1927276) / 7282097) / ((821003 + 1562664) / 6548078)
=0.389476 / 0.364025
=1.0699

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(482289 - 0 - 567014) / 7282097
=-0.011635

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Japan Tobacco has a M-score of -2.43 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Japan Tobacco Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Japan Tobacco (TSE:2914) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2-1, Toranomon 2-chome, Minato-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 105-8422
Japan Tobacco is the third-largest tobacco company globally. It owns a rich brand portfolio including Winston (non-U.S.), Camel (non-U.S.), and Mevius, and holds leading shares in many core markets including Japan, Russia, and the U.K. It has added Logic as a vaping brand and Ploom heated tobacco lines into its reduced-risk-product portfolio. The tobacco business contributes 90% of group sales and nearly all profits, with more than half generated by the overseas tobacco operations. JTI was created through the acquisition of R.J. Reynolds' non-U.S. operations in 1999 and further expanded through multiple acquisitions, of which the purchase of Gallaher in 2007 was the most notable, doubling JTI's sales. Pharmaceutical and processed food operations are the other businesses.

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