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Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co (SZSE:000429) Beneish M-Score : -2.19 (As of May. 14, 2024)


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What is Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.19 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

SZSE:000429' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.71   Med: -2.58   Max: 11.76
Current: -2.19

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co was 11.76. The lowest was -3.71. And the median was -2.58.


Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Beneish M-Score Chart

Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.13 11.76 -3.12 -3.09 -2.40

Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.14 -2.71 -2.86 -2.40 -2.19

Competitive Comparison of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co's Beneish M-Score

For the Infrastructure Operations subindustry, Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Construction Industry

For the Construction industry and Industrials sector, Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.5119+0.528 * 0.9692+0.404 * 1.0813+0.892 * 1.139+0.115 * 1
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.5797+4.679 * -0.093313-0.327 * 0.8624
=-2.19

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar24) TTM:Last Year (Mar23) TTM:
Total Receivables was ¥253 Mil.
Revenue was 1124.466 + 1191.239 + 1347.392 + 1185.864 = ¥4,849 Mil.
Gross Profit was 768.203 + 611.825 + 926.657 + 809.392 = ¥3,116 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ¥5,142 Mil.
Total Assets was ¥21,588 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ¥10,876 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ¥0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ¥-33 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ¥1,627 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ¥6,226 Mil.
Net Income was 420.706 + 277.562 + 470.604 + 475.796 = ¥1,645 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = ¥0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 808.098 + 838.677 + 979.191 + 1033.094 = ¥3,659 Mil.
Total Receivables was ¥147 Mil.
Revenue was 1154.573 + 880.575 + 1230.638 + 991.291 = ¥4,257 Mil.
Gross Profit was 790.374 + 390.774 + 830.234 + 640.005 = ¥2,651 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ¥5,476 Mil.
Total Assets was ¥21,217 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ¥10,679 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ¥0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ¥-49 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ¥2,292 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ¥6,658 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(253.045 / 4848.961) / (146.941 / 4257.077)
=0.052185 / 0.034517
=1.5119

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(2651.387 / 4257.077) / (3116.077 / 4848.961)
=0.622819 / 0.642628
=0.9692

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (5142.197 + 10875.661) / 21587.569) / (1 - (5475.574 + 10678.573) / 21216.592)
=0.258005 / 0.238608
=1.0813

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4848.961 / 4257.077
=1.139

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(0 / (0 + 10678.573)) / (0 / (0 + 10875.661))
=0 / 0
=1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(-32.598 / 4848.961) / (-49.369 / 4257.077)
=-0.006723 / -0.011597
=0.5797

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((6226.381 + 1626.72) / 21587.569) / ((6657.919 + 2292.036) / 21216.592)
=0.363779 / 0.421838
=0.8624

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(1644.668 - 0 - 3659.06) / 21587.569
=-0.093313

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co has a M-score of -2.19 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co (SZSE:000429) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Zhujiang East Road, 45-46th Floor, Litong Plaza, No.32, Zhujiang New City, Tihe Disrtict, Guangzhou, CHN, 510623
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd is principally engaged in the development and operation of expressways and large bridges. It is involved in tolling and maintenance of Guangfo Expressway, Fokai Expressway, Jiujiang Bridge, Huiyan Expressway, Maozhan Expressway, Jiangzhong Expressway, Kangda Expressway and Gankang Expressway.

Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co (SZSE:000429) Headlines

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