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China Southern Airlines Co (SHSE:600029) Beneish M-Score : -4.26 (As of May. 06, 2024)


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What is China Southern Airlines Co Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -4.26 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

SHSE:600029' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -11.75   Med: -2.88   Max: -1.37
Current: -4.26

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of China Southern Airlines Co was -1.37. The lowest was -11.75. And the median was -2.88.


China Southern Airlines Co Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

China Southern Airlines Co Beneish M-Score Chart

China Southern Airlines Co Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.00 -5.40 -2.62 -3.63 -5.15

China Southern Airlines Co Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.86 -2.14 -5.95 -5.15 -4.26

Competitive Comparison of China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score

For the Airlines subindustry, China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score falls into.



China Southern Airlines Co Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of China Southern Airlines Co for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.4789+0.528 * -1.5165+0.404 * 1.1166+0.892 * 1.7109+0.115 * 1
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.8079+4.679 * -0.146547-0.327 * 1.0051
=-4.26

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar24) TTM:Last Year (Mar23) TTM:
Total Receivables was ¥4,406 Mil.
Revenue was 44601 + 40438 + 47661 + 37775 = ¥170,475 Mil.
Gross Profit was 4876 + -788 + 8204 + 4170 = ¥16,462 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ¥30,045 Mil.
Total Assets was ¥313,729 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ¥251,293 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ¥0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ¥7,847 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ¥133,767 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ¥118,360 Mil.
Net Income was 756 + -5529 + 4195 + -977 = ¥-1,555 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 4517 + -1199 = ¥3,318 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 9777 + 3155 + 17204 + 10967 = ¥41,103 Mil.
Total Receivables was ¥5,377 Mil.
Revenue was 34055 + 16898 + 29344 + 19346 = ¥99,643 Mil.
Gross Profit was 761 + -8748 + -1417 + -5188 = ¥-14,592 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ¥32,836 Mil.
Total Assets was ¥308,760 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ¥247,374 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ¥0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ¥5,677 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ¥140,215 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ¥106,651 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(4406 / 170475) / (5377 / 99643)
=0.025845 / 0.053963
=0.4789

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(-14592 / 99643) / (16462 / 170475)
=-0.146443 / 0.096565
=-1.5165

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (30045 + 251293) / 313729) / (1 - (32836 + 247374) / 308760)
=0.103245 / 0.092467
=1.1166

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=170475 / 99643
=1.7109

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(0 / (0 + 247374)) / (0 / (0 + 251293))
=0 / 0
=1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(7847 / 170475) / (5677 / 99643)
=0.04603 / 0.056973
=0.8079

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((118360 + 133767) / 313729) / ((106651 + 140215) / 308760)
=0.803646 / 0.79954
=1.0051

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-1555 - 3318 - 41103) / 313729
=-0.146547

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

China Southern Airlines Co has a M-score of -4.26 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


China Southern Airlines Co Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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China Southern Airlines Co (SHSE:600029) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
68 Qixin Road, China Southern Air Building, Baiyun District, Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, CHN, 510403
China Southern Airlines is based in Guangzhou and is one of the three largest state-owned airlines in China. The group operated a fleet of 894 aircraft as of 2022 and carried more than 150 million passengers in prepandemic 2019, ranking first in Asia. It runs a spoke-and-hub model under which it gathers and distributes passengers from air hubs like Guangzhou and Beijing. The group's route network extends to over 243 destinations and 44 countries and regions.

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